Date: Thursday, 24 October 2024
The Sudanese military captured the town of Dinder in Sennar State this morning, the latest gain in a multi-pronged offensive in the nation’s agricultural heartlands.
The offensive, which began in early October, has succeeded in recapturing parts of Sennar and Jazira states, which the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had seized in two offensives in December 2023 and June-July 2024, respectively.
These advances coincide with fighting in Khartoum State and North Darfur, where the Sudanese military is trying to relieve besieged troops. These coordinated offensives have put the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under pressure along multiple fronts and they are losing territory for the first time since the war began in April 2023.
However, the RSF has vowed to counterattack, and they did so at Tamboul in Jazira State, yesterday, October 22, seizing the village and leaving it littered with bodies.
Thousands of villagers have fled as the fighting escalated and spread into new areas, dozens of civilians were killed; others were arrested. The army reportedly arrested 75 civilians in Dinder today for “cooperating with the rebellious RSF militia.”
Back-and-forth fighting for Dinder previously occurred in July, when the RSF captured the city before withdrawing when army-aligned troops counterattacked. RSF then attacked again, finally driving out the army for the duration of the rainy season until today. Joint Force troops, particularly those of the Sudan Liberation Movement faction led by Mustafa Tambour, are supporting army operations along the Dinder axis.
The latest army advance in Al-Jazira State, which took place along at least two axes, coincided with the defection of the top RSF commander (and de facto governor) in the state, Abu Aqlah Keikel. The northern axis of advance in the state may have been launched in part to secure the extraction of this commander.
Joined by a handful of bodyguards, Keikel met the advancing SAF troops and surrendered to them somewhere on the Butana plain north of Wad Madani—an operation coordinated in advance. He was warmly welcomed by the Sudanese military and greeted as a hero. In a statement, the army spokesman said that Keikel had “sided with the truth and decided to fight alongside our army, abandoning the lines of the rebels after discovering the falsehood of the claims of the terrorist Dagalo militia.”
The statement further suggested that Keikel would be given “amnesty,” adding, “we renew the amnesty offered by the head of the Sovereignty Council and commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces to any rebel that sides with the nation and reports to the nearest army base in all parts of Sudan.”
This was the second time that Keikel switched sides. Last year, he joined the RSF after previously leading Sudan Shield, an Islamist militia formed just before the war, which supported the Sudanese Armed Forces.
The Rapid Support Forces downplayed the impact of Keikel’s defection, but the well-timed move may have given the Sudanese Armed Forces a temporary advantage as they advanced into the state, providing them with key intelligence and causing confusion within the ranks of the paramilitary and a blow to morale.
For background, the civil war in Sudan involves competing security services of the Islamist regime of former President Omar al-Bashir, who lost power after massive street protests in 2019. This initiated a brief era of civilian rule, until Al-Bashir’s generals retook power in a coup in 2021. The army and the paramilitary RSF, which supported the coup, turned on each other in April 2023, launching the current war.
