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Ukraine's future under a Trump presidency: four possible scenarios

Posted by: The Conversation

Date: Friday, 15 November 2024

Donald Trump has famously said he would end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours”. And since his election there has been much speculation as to how he will approach the conflict. There is already talk about a plan that will hand Russia the territory it now occupies and create an 800-mile “buffer zone” policed by European and UK troops. Ukraine would also have to shelve any plans to join Nato for at least 20 years.

It’s a plan that will certainly appeal to the “America first” lobby. Europe would bear much, if not all, of the cost of maintaining the peace. It’s also reasonable to assume that Vladimir Putin would find Russia’s territorial gains to his liking. But you can’t imagine that Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is overly enthusiastic about the deal. Here are four possible scenarios as to how the situation in Ukraine might now play out.

In June this year the Canadian government lifted the moratorium on cod fishinng that had been in place since 1992 after cod stocks in the north Atlantic plummeted. The decision was highlly controversial and offers a cautionary tale for politicians trying to balance the complex demands of protecting ecosystems that also support substantial economies. This week’s episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast unpacks all the issues.

It’s usually thought that the movement to end the transatlantic slave trade came from western abolitionists in the 1700s. Historian José Lingna Nafafé, however, argues that the idea was conceived among Africans in the Portuguese empire in the 1600s. Nafafé reveals the central role played in abolition by an Angolan prince.

Jonathan Este

Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

Ukraine war: following Donald Trump’s re-election, four likely scenarios are becoming clear

Robert Dover, University of Hull

Trump’s victory has focused minds on how the US and Europe might now look to settle the situation in Ukraine.

Why Canada’s decision to lift a ban on cod fishing in Newfoundland after 32 years is so controversial – podcast

Gemma Ware, The Conversation

Fisheries scientist Tyler Eddy explains the history of the North Atlantic cod moratorium, and why it was lifted in 2024. Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.

Angolan prince started campaign to end Atlantic slave trade long before Europeans did – new book

José Lingna Nafafé, University of Bristol

The ideas and movement for the abolition of transatlantic slavery began largely among Africans.

African penguins could be extinct by 2035 – how to save them

Lorien Pichegru, Nelson Mandela University; Alistair McInnes, Nelson Mandela University; Katrin Ludynia, University of Cape Town; Peter Barham, University of Bristol

The African penguin has been declared critically endangered and could become extinct in the wild by 2035 unless commercial fishing in its breeding areas is limited.

Which animals carry mpox? Our study identified African forest dwelling rodents as one source

Clement Meseko, National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom, Jos

When occurring in nature, mpox is mostly confined to the humid forest regions of west and central Africa.

 
 
 
 

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