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The latest models suggest that the northern Sahel will still be wet during most of the end of the summer season in October and November from Mauritania to western Eritrea but dry in Yemen, Pakistan, and India.

The winter season will start earlier this year with above-normal rain on both sides of the Red Sea coast and the Gulf of Aden coast of northern Somalia during the second half of October and on the southern coast of Yemen in November followed by below-normal rains in December and January on the Red Sea coast. In the spring breeding, slightly wetter rains may start in southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan in February.