Dehai News

The war in Gaza, which is approaching its ninth month, has overshadowed other wars around the world. More than any other, perhaps, we have not paid enough attention to the brutal civil war in Sudan. The media has almost totally ignored it, intentionally or not. We no longer know on a daily basis what killing, destruction, tragedies and displacement the people of Sudan are experiencing.

The violence in Sudan between the Sudanese Army led by Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces militia led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, began in April last year. Dagalo was Burhan’s deputy and partner in the coup against former president Omar Hassan Al-Bashir. An estimated 7.3 million people have been displaced since last year, and nobody knows exactly how many people have been killed. The UN estimates, it is said, are remarkably low; they were put at around 15,000 in the first year of the war, but up to that number were killed in an RSF massacre in the city of El-Geneina alone.

During the last week of June, events accelerated faster than expected, bringing the crisis to a point that is difficult to come back from; a return to the status quo before the war looks highly unlikely. Military operations saw some cities falling altogether, while others were besieged.

The humanitarian repercussions are immeasurable.

However, the most dangerous thing about this brutal war is that it has produced sharp polarisation, not only between the army and the RSF, but also the political groupings within civil society, as well as regional actors supporting one side or the other. As international forces gather in the region like vultures, a dangerous, broader conflict is looming. It’s yet another “scramble for Africa”.

The RSF was founded by Al-Bashir over ten years ago, and had military and logistical support from the Sudanese security services. The militia basically became a parallel state in Sudan; a state within a state, with the approval of Al-Burhan himself, to ensure that he remained in power. Its connections with foreign states have developed with the aim of dividing Sudan supported by countries backing the militia. Conversely, the capabilities of the Sudanese Army have declined.

At the beginning of its second year, the war took a new direction that clearly reflected the by now obvious external interference in Sudan. Weapons including drones are supplied to the RSF through a designated airport in Chad. This is no secret, and nor is the fact that the army no longer hides its military relations with Iran and Russia.

War in Sudan continues… – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]

The Russia-China expansion in Central and West Africa, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s systematic measures for the establishment of a Russian military base on the Red Sea, have prompted the US to rearrange its positioning in Africa. Washington has turned to Kenya as its new gateway to Central and East Africa, with one eye on Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia, and the other on Bab Al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. This is why America offered Kenya last month to be a distinguished non-NATO ally with military support for the Kenyan Air Force and the possibility of making its headquarters in the East African country as the main base in the region for US troops.

Iran has also reinforced its presence in the Red Sea by strengthening its presence in Sudan through support for the Sudanese Army. It has supplied drones and other equipment.

Sudan has thus become the focus of international interference because of its enormous wealth of natural resources, its extensive and fertile lands, and the River Nile. All of this tempts foreign intervention in the event that the state institutions crumble, making it easier to dismantle the state itself, divide the spoils and install an alternative regime.

Civil society forces in Sudan have played no effective role to stop the war and preserve a unified front. Instead, they are too busy in their internal conflicts with each other. They are divided between a group whose concern is to return to power through any alliance — including the Forces of Freedom and Change, and the National Congress — and another which believes in democratic choice and the need to hold elections, but whose voice is faint amid the cacophony of war and is almost impossible to hear. Moreover, some political forces are dependent on external parties, which has weakened their influence in Sudan and ability to provide solutions to the country’s many problems.

There is no other path or salvation for Sudan other than through democratic transformation, turning to the people’s will through free and fair elections. The state must be led by civilians, with secure borders maintained by a strong, unified national army, and professional police officers. This looks unlikely, though, amid this fierce civil war fuelled by the major powers who don’t want to stop it, but rather fan the flames in the rush to steal Sudan’s natural resources, regardless of the cost to its people.