Afwerki surprises the army by expelling the Sudanese Chargé d'Affaires in Asmara
Sources: Reason for expulsion: Intelligence activity threatens Eritrea's security
On Wednesday, the Eritrean authorities expelled the Sudanese Chargé d'Affaires, Ambassador Khaled Abbas, and gave him 72 hours to leave its territory, without providing any explanation for its decision, at a time when Sudanese-Ethiopian relations began to improve following the visit of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Port Sudan. After the Sudanese army considered Ethiopia one of the countries supporting the "Rapid Support Forces", and its leaders directed harsh criticism at it, signs of "reconciliation" appeared following the visit.
Al-Burhan and Abiy Ahmed during their meeting in Port Sudan on July 10 (Sudanese Sovereignty Council)Port Sudan did not issue any comments on Asmara's sudden decision, at a time when there is no Eritrean diplomatic mission in Sudan, and therefore Port Sudan does not have the opportunity to deal in kind as is diplomatically customary in such cases.
The Eritrean decision to expel the Chargé d'Affaires coincided with the visit of the controversial native administration official, Nazir Muhammad al-Amin Turk, who is affiliated with the army, and Mayor Hamid Tahir Okir, who are both native administration officials in eastern Sudan, where Eritrea plays an influential role, especially since there is cultural and ethnic overlap between the groups on both sides of the border.
Social media carried a picture of the two men, with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in the middle. A source who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat said that Afwerki took his guests to his village near the capital, Asmara, and they held a meeting aimed at reconciling Turk and the religious and tribal leader in eastern Sudan, Sheikh Suleiman Ali Bitay. However, neither party revealed what happened in the open-air meeting that took place there.
Eastern Sudan is witnessing these days tension between its civil leaderships, exacerbated by the government’s move to Port Sudan, which threatens to ignite the region, where Eritrea has been playing an influential role in the situation, exploiting the overlap between population groups on both sides of the border.
Asias Afwerki, Turk and Okir (social media)Political analyst Mohamed Latif pointed out that “it is difficult to predict the decisions that may be issued by the Eritrean authorities,” and reinforced his statement by saying that in 2020, President Afwerki launched a violent attack on “political Islam” and held it responsible for the secession of South Sudan, and warned of its threats to the transitional period. However, after the man’s predictions that the Islamists would ignite war in Sudan “came true,” he took the wrong position of supporting the army and political Islam groups, and even opened his lands to armed groups loyal to the army to train within his country’s borders.
Latif described the expulsion of the Chargé d'Affaires as "a sudden change in Eritrean positions, confusing all calculations," and said: "According to diplomatic norms, a 72-hour deadline for departure means that the reasons for the expulsion are not serious, and do not mean the end of diplomatic relations between the two countries." However, Latif, relying on the link between the events and the facts of the war and the positions of the parties, indicated that Afwerki's position on political Islam, which is running the war in the country and imposing its continuation, may have prompted him to review his wrong position and begin to reconsider his thinking. He continued: "But this is not a definitive conclusion. Perhaps the Eritrean authorities discovered that the de facto government maintains cooperative relations with the Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement, or that they have verified the existence of a relationship with the Tigray Liberation Movement, which is hostile to Asmara, which makes the decision more related to the policies of the de facto government than to the actions of the ambassador."
Tens of thousands of fighters from the Tigray Liberation Front, who fled after the war with the Ethiopian federal forces allied at the time with Eritrea, are still in Sudan. It was recently reported that the Sudanese army used them in its war with the Rapid Support Forces, which poses a threat to both Ethiopia and Eritrea, and affects the tense relationship between the two countries, especially since the war approached their borders with Sudan, after the Support Forces seized large parts of Sennar State and its capital, Singa.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki receiving Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (archive - Sudanese Sovereignty Council on Facebook)In turn, the leader of the National Umma Party, Dr. Salah Jalal, said that the expulsion of the Chargé d'Affaires, according to sources who spoke to him, "is linked to intelligence activity, communication and recruitment of agents that the Eritrean authorities have been monitoring for some time without his knowledge and considered to pose a threat to Eritrean national security."
Jalal, who maintains historical relations with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, revealed that Asmara preempted the expulsion of the Sudanese chargé d'affaires by deciding to expel the Russian ambassador from Asmara last week, and that there is a thread linking the two incidents that the Eritrean authorities have not revealed, saying: "The incident of expelling the ambassador will create questions that need answers from Port Sudan." He continued: "The current shift in the Eritrean position could be an incentive to restore the Eritrean position to the side of the civil forces, if we strike while the iron is hot."
