The first half of this year was a tumultuous, precarious, and dangerous time in the Horn of Africa. It was and still continues to be a complex and difficult period with many actors playing in the background and some overtly on the foreground. The relations between Somalia and Ethiopia went into a deep ebb, never before reached over the past five decades as Ethiopia overtly chose to seize and take through stealth and political manipulation of an unsuspecting poor Somali politician, parts of the long Somali coast and with-it, part of its territory, using the weakened Somali state governance. It callously chose to sign an MoU with one of the regions of Somalia, most probably on the urging of some foreign parties. It mistook the Somali quarrels for a diminished Somali nationalism!
Wise men in the past left an important wisdom, which literally advises that those who live in glass houses should not throw stones at others. The present Ethiopian government, whatever its goals were, forgot to heed that wisdom and hence put the whole region on a perilous edge. A fistful of dollars from some foreign parties, perhaps, mesmerized the rulers of Ethiopia, not knowing that every country those parties touched, was destroyed over the past four decades. They forgot what happened to Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Sudan. And indeed, what is happening to Ethiopia itself at the time of this writing. They are parties most other countries shun, even if they provide billions of dollars as aid and grants and loans, or at best keep them away at arm’s length. There is always trouble, where they go.
Somali people occupy a vast space in the Horn of Africa and parts of East Africa making them the widest spread people of the Eastern part of the African continent. They inhabit parts of Ethiopia, the Republic of Djibouti and the parts of the Republic of Kenya in addition to the Somali Federal Republic. They own the longest coast of the continent, and indeed, are also the largest ethnic population in the region despite the fake statistics NGOs and other multilateral organizations and regional governments portray of their numbers. They are fiercely nationalistic and do not like others to interfere in their quarrels and touch on their lands and waters. Ethiopia wrongly touched on a wrong nerve in the Somali and should heed, a Somali response, which could lead to what the present Ethiopian regime and its backers did not bargain for.
Despite being wronged, Somalia has not yet declared an all-out war against a country which seems bent on dismantling it. She keeps most of its cards close. Ethiopia also seems to have forgotten that it already occupies Somali territories which was wrongly given to them by the United Kingdom as late as 1954, which caused devastating wars between the two countries early in the 1960s and in the late seventies of the last century. The Soviet Union and its allies had to come to rescue it from the Somali onslaught to regain its lost territories. That Somali land in Ethiopia is only partially represented by the current Somali State of Ethiopia while other parts are in the Oromia and Harar States also of Ethiopia.
The irony of the matter is that the region does not need wars. They are mostly of the same Cushitic stock and speak the same Cushitic languages. They could have lived together in peace in the region and shared its bounties. But then politicians, bought out by foreigners, always create chaos and trouble in the region. Every time the countries of the region try to come close together, some unexpected turmoil plunges it into more trouble, probably worse than the previous ones. The recent signature of an MoU and a promise to extend recognition to a Somali region was an outright aggression and should never have occurred. It happened on the urging of some foreign party, most probably be the United Arab Emirates, which generally does not trust anything Somali, even a weak Somali state!
Indeed, Somalia has a long coast and Ethiopia remains a landlocked country. It is the lot of these countries but Somalia could allow Ethiopia to have access to the Somali sea on a commercial basis. It could probably have negotiated a good deal in exchange for other matters such as selling cheaper energy from its hydro dams in return for pricing the use of Somalia’s ports at prices less than commercial rates. This would have been good for both parties but Alas! This was not and is not the case so far.
Ethiopia created most of the its own problems as it took part in the partition of Africa by Europeans of the nineteenth century, when it was allowed by the Europeans to spread through force from its original northern space of Tigray and Amhara States of Ethiopia (Abyssinia) to the current expanse of the country, capturing other peoples and hence creating an African Empire for itself. The Ex-monarch of Ethiopia, Haile Selassie carried the title of Emperor. While it is a pivotal nation in the region, it could have lived with them in peace without imposing its will on others. People always fight back on the first opportunity they get when overpowered. It is the nature of humankind. It would seem they downplayed that aspect of humanity in Abyssinia before it acquired the name of Ethiopia in 1931. Ethiopia and Ethiopian was a name used by the ancient Greeks to describe Black people and their lands of Africa, and not particularly the Ethiopia of today. It is the Greek version of the Sudan or Black – the Sahel belt of the continent from East to West. Anyone can refer to the ancient maps to check on this matter.
The present regime in Ethiopia seems to be re-invigorating an old policy of Abyssinia, which was always to conquer more lands and more peoples. Ethiopia, instead of learning to live with its neighbors, is still playing an endless armed warfare strategy with many undiplomatic errors in the process. She forgot that others are also equally prepared for anything that may come out of Ethiopia. It is why nationalism in the region is so pronounced. Aligning itself with countries that do not wish the region well, like the United Arab Emirates and others, have been some of the mistakes Ethiopia has done. Perhaps another mistake was colluding with some Europeans who have interest in the region much like they did at the end of the nineteenth century, most notably France, which agreed to build naval ships for Ethiopia, a country which has no sea! They do not care if some Africans kill each other and they make some money in the process.
A policy designed to get one’s way by any means is bound to fail and will only cause miseries and more miseries in the country. In the process it will also cause some damages to others, but Ethiopia will, no doubt, lose more than it bargains for. It is why it should face a reality check, which is to live in peace with its neighbors and accept its realities and its geographic limitations and constraints. None of the other countries have waters and rivers like Ethiopia does, and they do not arm themselves to acquire those river basins or conquer other peoples’ countries.
No one builds a foreign policy on the don quixotic wants of a ruler who wants to create a legacy for himself by endangering the lives of millions of people both in his country and in others. It appears that the Prime Minister of Ethiopia by signing the MoU with another equally desperate Somali regional leader, wants to create a legacy for himself. He already did by signing the MoU, which should suffice to put him in the books of history!
There is a geopolitical rivalry over the region involving several assets of the region including its location overlooking the major Suez Canal/Indian Ocean shipping waterway and the presence of substantial untapped mineral resources in the region including a third of known uranium reserves in the world, the sixth largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world and the region being the source of most freshwater to northeastern Africa (Sudan and Egypt). The countries involved in the region include among others the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, China, the United States and, of course the old colonial countries of the region, namely the United Kingdom, France and Italy. Türkiye and Russia are not absent from the region either, which adds to the increased military involvement of other countries in the region. India which always watches its nemesis, China, and just across the waters of the Indian Ocean is also present in the region, at least on a naval basis and diplomatically.
It is where a rapprochement between Ethiopia and Somalia is necessary for the wellbeing of the region with Ethiopia taking the first step as it was the one country, which was clearly responsible for instigating the whole spectrum of uncertainties in the region’s worsened security situation. Such a step would simply be to unilaterally cancel and terminate the MoU. This would be good for the peoples of the region and will help tone down the unnecessary antagonism it created, for the betterment of the relations between the two countries. Certainly, this will disappoint the foreign parties that were pushing Ethiopia on this wrong track, but saving millions of one’s own people deserves all the sacrifices one can ever make for one’s country and people.
Such a turnaround in Ethiopia’s position would be historic and would remove armed conflict in the region, involving not only Ethiopia and Somalia but also other actors, from the table. There will clearly be space to confront the real enemies of the region which is hunger, underdevelopment, diseases and other social malaises prevalent in the world of today.
This would certainly change the dynamics of the region which was dominated from the nineteenth century to this day by the construction of the modern Ethiopia through conquest. No one remembers it but Harar was the Somali Capital before 1897, when it was taken by Menelik II, with the connivance of the French and the British. That can never be repeated, at least, in the foreseeable future and the only path to development and peace remains to be living together with the neighbors. Will such a turnaround on the part of Ethiopia from its current wrong quest for Somali waters or for that matter any other’s waters, ever occur? Will there be a historic turnaround In Ethio-Somalia Relations a Possibility? These are questions that the people of the Horn of Africa should keep in mind, in these uncertain times.
