Date: Thursday, 17 October 2024
https://theduran.com/the-current-situation-in-the-u-s-presidential-contest/
The Current Situation in the U.S. Presidential Contest
16 October 2024, by Eric Zuesse
My sources here are:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/president/general-election, where it looks like a tie.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, where it looks like a tie.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris, where it looks like a Harris win because ONLY the ENTIRETY of the nation is being polled there, no focus is provided there on the battleground states that will determine the election’s outcome.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election, where the current betting odds are 60% for a Trump win, 40% for a Harris win. 7 August 2024 was the date when Harris finally beat Trump among bettors at polymarket.com, and this lasted till 7 October 2024 when Trump finally broke through to again beat her there. By the time of 16 October, it was 60% for Trump, and 40% for Harris — she was plunging, he was rising, there.
No prediction will be made here as to what the outcome will be. I shall simply point out what I think might be the “October surprise” or even “November surprise” late-contest factors that could significantly affect its outcome:
If Benjamin Netanyahu will disobey Joe Biden and bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil-production facilities and thus set virtually the entire Middle East on fire, then Kamala Harris, who has 100% supported and still does, the entirety of Biden’s entire foreign policies, including in regard to both Israel and Iran, will also be seeing her electoral chances go down in flames. (I suspect that if Netanyahu will obey Biden at least through November 5th, then he quite possibly will change course immediately afterward, in which case, the American public will deeply regret not only the current Administration but the U.S. Government itself, under which we live.)
If Netanyahu will disobey Biden and continue his program to blockade and starve to death all of the surviving Gazans, then American media might publicize what Netanyahu is doing, and that would help Trump, because, as Gabriel Sherman headlined at Vanity Fair on last November, 3 November 2023, “Donald Trump, After Bashing Netanyahu, Is Trying to Shore Up His Pro-Israel Cred: While Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war is drawing rare praise from Republicans — “A+” says one GOP donor — the former president is doing damage control in speeches and privately with Jewish leaders on the right.”
If Ukraine surrenders to Russia before November 5th, then that would cause Harris’s chances to go down in flames, much as the Middle East’s going down in flames would.
Of course, if Trump will become assassinated, then Harris’s electoral chances will become enormously assisted, but, at that point, President Biden himself will be blamed by many Americans, and his successor President Harris might then find herself dealing with a civil war, which would collapse the entire American empire. That might actually improve the chances for peace in the world, because the U.S. Government, ever since 25 July 1945, has been determined to conquer (by wars, coups, sanctions, and otherwise) ultimately the entire world, and is therefore considered (except within the U.S. empire itself) “the greatest threat to peace in the world today”.
If no such events take place between now and November 5th, then I would consider the current betting-odds at Polymarket — 60% and rising, for a Trump victory — to be reasonable. However, even if that happens, it would probably be (like in Trump’s 2016 win) an Electoral College victory in the face of a popular-vote defeat for Trump, and so the divisions in this country would still be intense, and the movement to pass an Amendment to eliminate the Electoral College would then likewise become intense in Democratic-Party-majority states.
Am I predicting that Trump will win? No, I am simply providing the evidences, and the logical implications of each. If I have missed evidences that are even more important than are the ones I’ve mentioned, then I will have failed for having done so. If that happens, then I shall accordingly change my method of reporting on such matters in the future.
In any field of science, methodology is even more important than findings, because it determines the findings. I said that in my book Christ’s Ventriliquists (page 25), and I adhere to it in everything I do.
PS: If you like this article, please email it to all your friends or otherwise let others know about it. None of the U.S.-and-allied ‘news’-media will likely publish it (nor link to it, since doing that might also hurt them with Google or etc.). I am not asking for money, but I am asking my readers to spread my articles far and wide, because I specialize in documenting what the Deep State is constantly hiding. This is, in fact, today’s samizdat.
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Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.
