The Horn of Africa region is always in a state of movement and development as a result of the interactions that occur due to the nature of relations between its countries, and resulting from the political developments witnessed by that vital region of the African continent and even the world, and it receives great regional and international attention.

From this perspective, the Egyptian-Somali-Eritrean tripartite alliance, which was held at the end of last year, received great attention and generated mixed reactions between welcome and concern due to its intertwined repercussions on the countries of the region, as it is considered one of the most important geopolitical transformations witnessed recently in the Horn of Africa. There is no doubt that this alliance, which was announced in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, is not just a cooperation agreement between three major countries in the African continent, due to the deep strategic implications it carries related to the process of reshaping the balances in the Horn of Africa region, especially since it came in the wake of an important and sensitive step when Somalia signed military understandings with Egypt in response to Ethiopian provocations at the time.

When evaluating this step and analyzing its effects and repercussions in this regard, we should stop at the objectives of this alliance, its dimensions, and the challenges it may face. We also cannot ignore the different reactions of neighboring countries and how they received the news of this alliance and their position on it according to the calculations of gain and loss and its relation to the development of their relations among themselves, especially the reconciliation that took place under Turkish auspices between Somalia and Ethiopia shortly after the announcement of the tripartite alliance, which cannot be separated from the impact of the Turkish role in this regard, which we will discuss in some detail in the following lines.

First: The objectives of the Egyptian-Somali-Eritrean alliance:

There is no doubt that there are higher goals behind this alliance that can be summarized as follows:

1. Facing common challenges:

It is well known that there are common challenges facing the three countries, most notably maritime piracy, illegal immigration, the negative effects of climate change and its dangerous consequences, in addition to terrorism and extremism, which require collective cooperation to confront them through diplomatic and political channels and security means among the members of the alliance.

• achieving strategic balance

In light of the growing influence of regional powers, it is important to work to achieve strategic balance in order to maintain national security and protect supreme interests, which is what this alliance aims to achieve.

• Supporting economic development

The economy is the lifeblood and its objectives are inseparable from any political movements and developments. Therefore, the alliance countries seek to benefit from opportunities to enhance trade and economic cooperation between them, attract foreign investments, and achieve sustainable development in the region through the bonds of this alliance.

Second: Dimensions of the tripartite alliance between Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea

In light of the above, several dimensions of this tripartite alliance can be identified as follows:

1. Political dimension

The alliance of the three countries creates a rapprochement that creates understandings regarding issues of common interest, as the alliance can facilitate the process of coordination in political positions in international forums and enhance their role in resolving regional conflicts, which leads to increasing the international weight of these countries regarding the issues concerned.

• Security dimension:

 Since security is a primary goal for every country, especially in light of the escalation of terrorist threats in the region and prohibited illegal activities, the importance of security coordination among the members of the Tripartite Alliance comes through cooperation, exchange of intelligence information, coordination of military operations, and combating terrorism, extremism, and organized crime.

• Economic dimension

The economy is the locomotive and a basic supporter of politics, and without it, politics cannot be right. Therefore, it occupies a major dimension in the background of this alliance, by seeking to enhance regional economic integration between the three countries by facilitating and stimulating the movement of trade and investment, developing infrastructure, and supporting regional cooperation in vital areas such as energy and transportation.

Third: The challenges facing the Egypt-Somalia-Eritrea alliance:

On the other hand, there are a number of factors that pose challenges that may hinder the work of this tripartite alliance towards achieving its goals, and they can be summarized as follows:

1. The presence of regional tensions in the Horn of Africa region and the accompanying ongoing conflicts that affect the strength of the alliance.
2. Given the difficult economic development conditions that the coalition countries are experiencing to varying degrees, there is a challenge related to the limited resources of the three countries, which makes them in need of financial and technical support from the international community to achieve the desired goals.
3.  One of the problems the region suffers from is the frequent foreign interventions by regional and international powers to achieve their interests and agendas, which may conflict with the visions and goals of the alliance.

Fourth: The positions of the countries concerned with this alliance:

There is no doubt that overcoming the challenges facing this alliance is inseparable from knowing the positions of the various countries concerned with this alliance, and we find that the positions range between satisfaction, welcome, anxiety, and tension.

In general there are:

1.  Countries that may be welcoming

These are the countries that could benefit from this alliance, such as the Gulf States, which may see it as an interest in strengthening their influence and confronting other regional powers. On the international level, there are also countries that welcome and benefit from the tripartite alliance, such as China, which may find it a strategic partner in the Horn of Africa region.

• Countries that may be disturbed and worried about the tripartite alliance

The difference and conflict of interests between countries leads to different positions on this alliance and a feeling of anxiety and discomfort, including Ethiopia, the regional power that aspires to impose its influence in the region and because of its relations with other neighbors that may be affected to one degree or another by the establishment of this alliance. Djibouti could also be part of this group as it relies heavily on its strategic location as a corridor for global trade and has military bases for major countries, and the alliance may affect its role that it seeks to maintain in the region. Sudan and South Sudan may also feel some anxiety if they see the alliance between Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea as a threat to their interests.

In general, regional and international reactions and positions towards this alliance depend largely on a set of factors and considerations, the most important of which is the nature of this alliance and its declared objectives. If its focus is based on economic and development cooperation, what is prominent is its positive effects on the region in general, which creates a good climate for cooperation. However, if the focus is on achieving military and security objectives, this may lead to increased tensions in the region.

Other regional interactions, such as relations between the Horn of Africa countries and external interventions by regional and international powers, also affect the climate of dealing with this alliance.

Fifth: The impact of the Somali-Ethiopian reconciliation on the tripartite alliance:

It was noteworthy that a reconciliation took place between Somalia and Ethiopia under Turkish sponsorship shortly after the announcement of Somalia’s alliance with Eritrea and Egypt, which raised some concerns about the impact of this on the future and feasibility of the alliance, which depends on several factors, namely:

The goals of this reconciliation that Somalia and Ethiopia are seeking, the extent of the rapprochement and depth of relations between them, and the corresponding reactions from the other two parties to the alliance, Egypt and Eritrea. There is also another important point related to the nature of geopolitical developments in the Horn of Africa and the mutual influence between them.

The impact of this reconciliation on the future of the alliance can be measured through specific criteria, including:

1. Common bilateral objectives for Somali-Ethiopian reconciliation.

It includes combating terrorism and economic cooperation in the field of development, which, if achieved, may reduce the importance of the tripartite alliance for Somalia.

• The position of Egypt and Eritrea.

If Egypt and Eritrea are concerned about the bilateral rapprochement between Somalia and Ethiopia, it may push them to strengthen their relations with other countries in the region instead of the negative impact that is occurring. Other countries in the neighborhood may also take positions based on their observation of the situation and seize any opportunity that serves their interests.

Accordingly, alliances may change if the Somali-Ethiopian rapprochement comes at the expense of Somalia’s relationship with its alliance with Egypt and Eritrea, which affects the balance of power and prompts the two affected parties of the tripartite alliance to reconsider the tripartite alliance.

• Geopolitical impact:

This is an effect that includes regional influence and competition. In other words, the bilateral rapprochement between Somalia and Ethiopia may lead to an increase in Ethiopia’s influence in the region at the expense of the Egyptian and Eritrean role, and it also creates a climate of regional competition for influence in a way that may expose the region to heated conflicts that negatively affect its stability.

Sixth: The impact of the Turkish role on the effectiveness of the tripartite alliance:

There is no doubt that Turkey is one of the powers that seeks to extend its influence in the Horn of Africa region and is keen to have a strong presence in all ways and channels politically, diplomatically, culturally and socially. From this standpoint, its unique role was in successfully bringing the views of Somalia and Ethiopia closer together and sponsoring the reconciliation that took place between them. The timing of this reconciliation was not in vain, as it took place shortly after the establishment of the Somali-Eritrean-Egyptian alliance, as if Turkey was sending a message to everyone that it is present and participating strongly in the game on the African scene, especially the Horn of Africa region.

The impact of this on the alliance and its strategic objectives can be analyzed by knowing the Turkish interests in the region as well as the nature of its relations with the three alliance countries and their impact on it.

1. Turkish interests in the region

It can be limited to achieving regional influence since the region is of strategic and economic importance, in addition to cooperating with the countries of the region to confront common dangers such as piracy and terrorism. In addition to that, Turkey's major goal is to open markets for itself in Africa and increase the volume of its trade and investments there to maximize its gains and profits within its ambitious plans.

• Türkiye's relations with the three coalition countries:

First with Somalia:

We find that Turkey has a very strong relationship with Somalia, as it cooperates with it in the field of development and provides it with support in the areas of security and economy, and is considered one of the largest investors in Somalia.

This relationship affects the tripartite alliance through several factors, including:

• The mediation role that Türkiye is keen to play between Somalia and Ethiopia, as has already happened, is reflected in one way or another in the tripartite alliance.
• With the growing Turkish influence in Somalia, there is competition for influence in the region between Türkiye and Egypt.
• The Turkish-Somali rapprochement could change the strategic balance in a way that casts a shadow over the viability of the alliance.

Second : With Eritrea:

With Eritrea, Türkiye seeks to develop its relations and has made official visits and discussions with Eritrean officials.

There are two axes of this relationship that can have an impact on the alliance:

• Economic cooperation and increasing Turkish influence in Eritrea.
• Türkiye's keenness to be present to compete for influence in the region.

Third : With Egypt :

It is noticeable that there are some tensions from time to time, but at the same time there are common interests between the two parties. This is reflected in:

-Regional tensions created by the tension between the two countries, which turns the region into an arena for conflict in a way that disturbs the alliance.

 Regional cooperation, despite tension, may exist in the areas of combating terrorism and economic development.

In general, it is difficult to evaluate the impact of the Turkish role on the Egyptian-Somali-Ethiopian alliance in a short period of time because it needs enough time to subject it to the requirements of objectivity in the analysis, but what can be confirmed is that whenever the intentions are good and the behaviors are sound within a legitimate competitive framework that seeks to maximize interests without harming others and not interfering in their internal affairs or attempts to extend influence, the matter becomes good and not worrying and in the interest of the region as a whole.

Finally: