The Red Sea region is undergoing rapid geopolitical transformations, with the military bases of global and regional powers increasing, radically altering the region's dynamics. The Red Sea is a strategic link between Africa and Asia, with its western flank encompassing countries such as Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, while its eastern shores comprise Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Over the past decade, major powers, led by China and Japan, have increasingly focused on the Red Sea region, embodied by the establishment of overseas military bases in Djibouti, a strategic location in the Horn of Africa. China's operational experiences, particularly during its evacuations from Libya and Yemen, have underscored the vital importance of forward operating bases in the region. In a related development, Russia has expressed its intention to establish a naval base in Sudan, indicating its expanding influence in the region.

The United States is strengthening its influence in the region through a military base in Djibouti and close strategic ties with Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Its participation in international efforts, such as the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), underscores its commitment to shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Red Sea. Despite its limited size and natural resources, Djibouti has leveraged its strategic geopolitical location to become a hub for American, European, and Asian military bases, aiming to protect their interests in the Red Sea. The simultaneous presence of major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia indicates growing international competition in the region. The Israeli port of Eilat enjoys a strategic location in the northeastern corner of this vital waterway.

The Red Sea has emerged as a strategic link in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), making it a focus of geopolitical competition in the Eastern Hemisphere over the past decade. The expansion of Chinese infrastructure investments from Djibouti across the Red Sea to the Mediterranean has coincided with a strengthening Chinese military presence in the region. A notable manifestation of this expansion has been the significant expansion of Egypt's Berenice Naval Base, which opened in 2021. In the south, Sudan's ports have witnessed significant developments in the context of regional geopolitics, as China works to rehabilitate and expand the Port Sudan Container Terminal, integrating it into the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Red Sea is witnessing an escalation in competition for strategic locations, as the United States works to strengthen its naval presence in the region. In a strategic move to counter the Belt and Road Initiative, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was unveiled in September. This initiative aims to connect India to the Arabian Peninsula and on to Europe, bypassing the Red Sea entirely. This geopolitical initiative seeks to draw regional countries away from Chinese influence, despite Saudi Arabia and the UAE having signed the Belt and Road Initiative. If implemented, the India-Europe Economic Corridor is expected to reduce the transit time for goods from India to Europe by 40%, potentially positioning Saudi Arabia as a global logistics hub.

Security dilemma:

The drivers of insecurity in the Red Sea region are diverse, but they are largely tied to agency activities and regional rivalries. Piracy off the coast of Somalia, once the most significant security challenge in the Red Sea, has diminished thanks to a large-scale international naval operation that began in 2008. Since then, the conflict in Yemen has replaced piracy as the primary source of instability.

With the outbreak of events in Yemen following the ouster of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2012, the country quickly became another arena for the Saudi-Iranian rivalry for regional influence, with Iran providing support to the Houthis. This led to a military intervention by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to support the Yemeni government. In addition to the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Yemen, the conflict quickly escalated into a serious threat to shipping in the Red Sea.

Houthi forces have launched dozens of attacks on international vessels in the waters off the Yemeni coast, beginning with attacks using relatively unsophisticated missiles. Houthi forces have used at least 24 anti-ship missiles. Saudi forces have also announced the dismantling of several Houthi-planted sea mines discovered in international shipping lanes. More recently, the threat posed by the use of armed naval drones has escalated between January 2017 and June 2021. Houthi forces have also targeted military vessels on occasion.

Regional rivalries among the Gulf states have led to escalating political tensions along the Red Sea coast. Following the deepening dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar in 2017, the region witnessed a political and economic boycott of Qatar. This resulted in competing powers racing to control commercial ports and military sites on the African coast of the Red Sea. These rivalries extended to include political interference in the region's political transitions, particularly in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan. In Sudan, both Turkey and Qatar sought to support Islamist forces, making Sudan an arena for the broader political struggle between these parties elsewhere in the Middle East.

Military reinforcements:

As Middle Eastern rivalries have extended to the Red Sea, the region has witnessed a marked escalation in military interventions. The UAE established a military base in the Eritrean port of Assab in 2015 as a launching pad for its naval and air operations against the Houthis in Yemen. This base, along with other agreements to secure access to and develop the region's ports, has significantly expanded the UAE's presence in the Red Sea, with diverse military and economic repercussions. This is despite the UAE canceling plans in 2020 to build a second military base in Berbera, Somaliland.

Although Turkey and Qatar, allied in their struggle for regional influence with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, do not have naval or military bases in the Red Sea, they resort to providing economic aid and concluding trade deals as a means of enhancing their influence with the Red Sea states. Turkey operates a training base for Somali forces in Mogadishu, and in 2017, it signed an agreement with Sudan to rehabilitate Suakin Island.

In addition to the Yemeni conflict and military threats to international navigation in the Red Sea, simmering regional conflicts are exacerbating instability in the region. The ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia, particularly in the Tigray region, and intermittent conflicts in Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan are attracting interventions from numerous regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, which are competing with Turkey and Qatar for influence.

Djibouti has become a vital hub for foreign military presence, hosting naval bases for the United States, France, Italy, Japan, and China. These countries have participated in international counterpiracy operations and continue to maintain a significant presence there for that purpose, with the United States and China also focusing on their broader strategic interests. The U.S. base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti is a vital anchor for its naval and air presence in the Gulf, Diego Garcia Island, and other areas of the Indian Ocean and the East. The base also serves as the headquarters for U.S. Africa Command operations, hosting 4,000 U.S. and allied troops.

China has maintained a permanent naval presence in the region since joining anti-piracy operations in 2008, at times deploying more than 26,000 troops. In 2017, the Chinese military established a logistics base in Djibouti, intended to support naval and peacekeeping operations in the Horn of Africa, as well as potential contingency operations, such as evacuating nationals (as it did in Libya in 2011 and Yemen in 2015). The Chinese presence in Djibouti is also intended to support potential counterterrorism operations and intelligence gathering.

On the Russian front, Moscow has concluded military cooperation agreements with approximately 20 African countries. Despite stalled negotiations to establish a military base in Djibouti, it succeeded in reaching an agreement with Sudan on February 12, 2025, to establish a Russian naval base in the Red Sea coastal city of Port Sudan. According to both parties, this base will serve as a strategic pivot to ensure security and stability in the region and enhance military-technical cooperation between the two countries.