By Godfred Zina
The growing diplomatic ties between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia are poised to reshape the power dynamics in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. As regional tensions rise, their partnership could significantly impact Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, Somaliland’s strategic position, and the broader geopolitical landscape.
A History of Mediation and Strategic Moves
Saudi Arabia has played a crucial role in regional diplomacy, most notably mediating the 2018 Jeddah Agreement, which contributed to Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed receiving the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. However, the relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia remains fragile, particularly as Ethiopia continues to push for direct Red Sea access – an issue that has heightened tensions despite Turkey’s involvement in brokering an Ethiopian-Somaliland sea deal.
Now, Saudi Arabia is preparing to invest billions in Eritrea’s Assab port, a move that could redefine regional trade routes and challenge Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations. If realized, this investment would alter the balance of power, potentially overshadowing Somaliland’s Berbera port and shifting the region’s economic and security priorities.
The Strategic Implications
A strengthened Saudi-Eritrean alliance could bolster Eritrea’s defense capabilities, deter Ethiopian assertiveness, and enhance economic stability. Meanwhile, the deal forces other key players – including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and China – to reassess their strategic footholds in the Red Sea.
The rise of Assab as a major port could have mixed consequences for Somaliland. While it might attract new investments, it could also divert economic and political attention away from Berbera, potentially weakening its influence in regional trade.
Ethiopia’s Dilemma: Diplomacy or Confrontation?
As Saudi Arabia deepens its presence in Eritrea, Ethiopia faces a critical choice: pursue diplomatic negotiations for Red Sea access or risk escalating tensions with its long-time rival. Meanwhile, Somaliland may seek stronger backing from the UAE or renegotiate its agreements with Ethiopia to maintain its port’s strategic relevance.
The UAE, Turkey, and China must now decide whether to counterbalance Saudi influence in the Red Sea or adjust their regional strategies accordingly.
With these shifting alliances, the stakes in the Red Sea have never been higher. How each player responds could determine the future of trade, security, and power in one of the world’s most strategic waterways.
Godfred Zina is a freelance journalist and an associate with DefSEC Analytics Africa – a consulting agency specializing in the provision of accurate data and assessments on security, politics, investment, trade, and other risks within Africa. He is based in Accra, Ghana.
