The conflict in the Horn of Africa is particularly complex due to the intertwining of external pressures on the region and internal struggles within it. It is witnessing a geostrategic race among major and regional powers for its strategic maritime location on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and its control of one of the world’s most important straits, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Simultaneously, internal conflicts and strife within its main constituent states: Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia. These conflicts have allowed for foreign intervention and infiltration, and colonialism, with its borders, protectorates and colonies, has contributed to many of them.
Currently, signs of renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea are emerging on the global stage. Eritrean Minister of Information Yemane Gebremeskel accused Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party of attempting to “ignite an unjustified war” and “revive expansionist rhetoric,” in response to statements by the Ethiopian Foreign Minister accusing Eritrea of destabilizing his country.
Although historical conflict between the two nations has persisted since Eritrea’s de facto separation in 1991 and formal independence in 1993, this latest escalation appears driven by direct external influence. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki recently warned of attempts by what he called “external powers” to establish hegemonic positions in the region through military bases on the islands of Socotra, Mayyun and Zuqar in Yemen, asserting the instability in Yemen stems from global powers seeking to consolidate a military presence there.
In this regard, attention points directly to the United Arab Emirates, which international reports indicate has been involved in establishing these bases and collaborating with “Israel” to secure a foothold—an effort that could not succeed without American sponsorship and protection.
For example, a report by Middle East Eye analyzed satellite imagery revealing a vast network of military and intelligence bases built by the UAE around the Red Sea, extending from Socotra in the Indian Ocean to the coasts of Somalia and Yemen. The report noted the presence of Zionist officers on the islands and “Israeli” radars monitoring the movement of Ansarullah, with both the US and “Israel” participating in the construction of these bases.
The matter goes beyond media reporting, reaching the explicitly political and military spheres. Tracking the political and military trajectory reveals that the US and the Zionist entity drive the conflict, with the UAE leading the operational role by supporting and financing the actors executing the American-Zionist agenda.
Somaliland provides a clear example of this approach. One of the Horn of Africa’s greatest crises, threatening the interests of Djibouti, the sovereignty of Somalia, and the security of Eritrea, Sudan and even Egypt, stems from Ethiopia’s insistence on gaining a Red Sea outlet. This reflects Ethiopia’s hostile policies, its ambition to restore dominance, and its role as a spearhead for the US and “Israel” in the region.
Among the factors fueling the current conflict is a memorandum of understanding between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Muse Bihi, the President of the breakaway region of Somaliland. Under this agreement, Ethiopia gains a 20-kilometer strategic corridor in the Gulf of Aden, a commercial port, and a naval base—granting the Ethiopian navy the right to operate along the Gulf of Aden coast through a base in the city of Lughaya and commercial use of Berbera port, in exchange for Addis Ababa’s recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state and granting it a share in Ethiopian Airlines.
Since Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991, Ethiopia initially avoided recognition to prevent accusations of supporting the fragmentation of Somalia, especially given Ethiopia’s multi-ethnic composition and the ongoing armed conflicts of some groups against the central government. Berbera port also required major development and new road networks linking it to Ethiopia, demanding substantial foreign investment and technical expertise.
In this context, the UAE entered the scene, altering Ethiopia’s position. The Arab coalition launched its aggression against Yemen in 2015. Initially, the UAE used Djibouti as a base to support operations in southern Yemen. However, Abu Dhabi and Djibouti later clashed, leading the Djiboutian government to expel the UAE. The UAE then turned to Eritrea, leasing the port of Assab to support its military operations in Yemen. This contradicted Ethiopia’s interest in isolating Eritrea internationally. Consequently, the port of Berbera was replaced by the port of Assab in Somaliland, and the UAE stepped in to invest in the port of Berbera instead of Eritrea.
Observers of US-Zionist relations with Eritrea and Somaliland note close alignment with UAE moves. US-Eritrean relations have fluctuated, beginning with embrace and support, turning to hostility during renewed Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict, followed by sanctions on Eritrea and containment to prevent Eritrea from allying with US adversaries. The containment phase saw Emirati mediation in the reconciliation between Eritrea and Ethiopia. However, relations deteriorated into hostility and threats of war after the US and “Israel” favored the port of Berbera over the port of Assab due to its proximity to Bab al-Mandab and Yemen, and after the establishment of bases on the Yemeni islands of Socotra and Mayyun. Ethiopia was chosen as a reliable ally following Eritrea’s rapprochement with Russia, China and Iran.
Consequently, Emirati support for Ethiopia has been unprecedented, and the UAE has intensified its investments in Somaliland, building a military base there. Reports also mentioned US engagement with Somaliland, including a visit by a delegation from the breakaway region to Washington and Trump’s intentions to relocate Gazans to Somaliland. Additionally, reports indicate growing cooperation between “Israel” and Somaliland, constructing military bases to monitor Ansarullah.
In Conclusion, the US and “Israel” shift alliances according to their hegemonic interests. After initially embracing Eritrea at its separation, they now display hostility and war threats while reclaiming Assab port militarily. After initially hesitating to recognize Somaliland and avoiding such recognition, the focus is now shifting towards recognition and establishing a foothold in the port of Berbera. This demonstrates that America and “Israel” have no friends or allies other than their hegemonic ambitions. Meanwhile, the UAE aligns with the American-Zionist orbit, deploying capital and companies to finance and serve actors acting in US-Zionist interests, as seen in Sudan, Libya, Chad and other international and regional conflict fronts. This serves as a lesson to governments relying on supposed American protection, empty promises and toxic Gulf-Emirati inducements.
