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What's driving coup contagion in West Africa

Posted by: The Conversation

Date: Tuesday, 09 December 2025

Another week. Another coup d'état (or an attempt at one).

The latest was a failed military takeover in Benin. John Joseph Chin unpacks factors that contributed to the coup leaders attempting to seize power. The first was growing authoritarianism under President Patrice Talon, the second the rising tide of jihadism on Benin’s borders and the last is deepening coup contagion in the region.

In late November the contagion in west Africa spread to Guinea-Bissau. As Salah Ben Hammou explains, the latest episode fits into a pattern of electoral coups in the country in the last two decades. In 2003 and 2012 the armed forces also intervened at moments of electoral uncertainty, just as they have this time.

So what’s going on? Why is democracy in such a perilous state on the continent? Richard Fosu applied a wide-angle lens to the problem, categorising unconstitutional changes of government into three groups: a military coup d’état; a refusal to relinquish power after losing an election; and manipulating constitutions to win or extend term limits.

He found that, for the most part, the African Union has taken a firm stand against military takeovers. But it’s been equivocal on the others, with bad consequences for democracy.

Caroline Southey

Founding Editor, Africa

Benin’s failed coup: three factors behind the takeover attempt

John Joseph Chin, Carnegie Mellon University

Growing autocratic rule, a rise in jihadist attacks and a proliferation of coups in the Sahel contributed to the attempt by Benin’s military to seize power.

Guinea-Bissau coup: election uncertainty has triggered military takeovers before

Salah Ben Hammou, Rice University

The coup sends a signal that electoral rules and constitutional procedures can be overridden by force.

Africa’s power grabs are rising – the AU’s mixed response is making things worse

Richard Fosu, Monash University

Constitutional manipulations have been a major trigger for military interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Social media, not gaming, tied to rising attention problems in teens, new study finds

Torkel Klingberg, Karolinska Institutet; Samson Nivins, Karolinska Institutet

A study of 8,000 children suggests social media, not screens in general, may be fuelling a rise in inattention.

Nasa robot rover shows that sparks fly in dust storms on Mars

Martin Fullekrug, University of Bath; Blair McGinness, University of Reading; Karen Aplin

The phenomenon could have implications for future missions to the red planet.

 
 
 
 

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