“You are wasting your resources”: PM
The African continent has hosted no less than nine successful coups since 2020, while a similar number of attempts at government overthrow have failed over the last four years. The developments are a sharp departure from the relative consistency of the previous two decades, and most of the coups are concentrated in the ‘Coup Belt’ of francophone West Africa.
Mali (two coups in nine months), Niger (two in eight months), Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Gabon were all hit by the coup wave, but so were Chad and Sudan, which is in the midst of a deadly civil war.
Although Washington has taken action opposing the leaders of these coups, including barring them from attending the US-Africa summit, the governments of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China have been more welcoming in their reception.
The African Union (AU) has also barred the coup countries from participating in elections for the AU chairperson, deputy chairperson, and six AU commissioner posts.
The recent public unrest engulfing Kenya as its citizens take to the streets in protest of a controversial tax bill from the administration of President William Ruto could signal the arrival of a coup wave in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia, which has been struggling with deep-seated internal political strife for years, is also at risk of an attempt at overthrowing the government, according to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD). He relayed the message during a lengthy address to Parliament on July 4, 2024.
“Recently, elders and other people are holding discussions about conducting a coup,” the PM told lawmakers. “Let me give you some advice. A coup cannot succeed in Ethiopia. We are from the military; we built our institutions to deter coups. The only coup that has ever succeeded in Ethiopia was 50 years ago. It cannot succeed now. You are wasting your time discussing coups in guest houses. You are wasting the resources of your friends.”
The PM refrained from specifying who exactly the “advice” was addressed to and later, when discussing in detail the ongoing clashes between government security forces and armed groups in Amhara and Oromia, he gave no hint of the previously mentioned coup.
However, well-placed sources told The Reporter that the government is currently on red alert over perceived coup threats. Sources say it is taking measures such as utilizing social media campaigns to counter narratives and strengthening security in some areas, including in Addis Ababa.
The concerns over a potential coup were ignited following the start of discussions between the US government and Ethiopian opposition party leaders as well as influential members of the Ethiopian Diaspora residing in the US, according to the sources.
On June 26, 2024, the US embassy in Addis tweeted that the US ambassador to Ethiopia, Ervin Massinga, had met with former Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew and former leader of the opposition Semayawi Party, Yilkal Getnet, in Washington D.C.
They discussed “Ethiopia’s National Dialogue commission, current Ethiopian affairs, emphasizing US support for a united, peaceful Ethiopia,” reads the tweet.
According to insiders, the administration of Abiy Ahmed views Washington’s recent activities and attempts at communicating with opposition party members living in exile as efforts to stoke a coup. Other sources claim that Special Envoy Mike Hammer, Assistant Foreign Secretary Molly Phee, and other US officials have also held talks with overseas-based Ethiopian politicians and influential Diaspora representatives.
US officials have sat down with Ethiopians from different backgrounds and ethnic groups, including Oromo, Amhara, and Tigray, among others.
A source working in government intelligence disclosed that the Ethiopian government’s assessments lead it to believe the US is attempting to form a coalition between the exiled political elites of various Ethiopian ethnicities in a bid to shape a new political force that can lead a coup.
The suspicions follow a breakdown in relations between Washington and Addis Ababa, which was made evident by Ambassador Massinga’s pointed policy speech in May touching on the precarious political and security situation in Ethiopia.
“To those in Oromia, the OLA, you made a genuine effort to reach a deal at the negotiation table in Dar es Salaam. Don’t give up. Make the effort to rebuild trust and seek the peace for which there is overwhelming public support. Too many people are suffering as the fighting continues,” said Massinga.
He also called for Fano to sit for negotiations with the government and cut short the violence that has engulfed the Amhara region for the past year.
During his parliamentary speech on Thursday, PM Abiy also stressed that his government has been calling for the armed groups to reach a negotiated peace, but alleged that the attempts had failed because the armed groups are too ethnicized and have no intentions of embracing a diversified Ethiopia.
“Their way of thinking is too narrow, but they point fingers at us as an ethnicized government. A coup will never succeed. If it does and Oromo Shene takes control, they will do no good but destroy Ethiopia. If Amhara Shene conducts a coup and takes power, they will do no good but destroy the country. If a coup succeeds by any means, Ethiopia will disintegrate and descend into war and chaos like Sudan,” said the PM.
Abiy was keen to stress that his administration has equally embraced all ethnicities.
“Some accuse it as being a unitarist government. Some accuse it as an ethnicized government. This government is not a government of Amhara. This government is not an Oromo government. This is an Ethiopian government,” said the PM.
Among the issues that armed groups have raised during past negotiations with the government is the need for a transitional government in Ethiopia. While launching the National Dialogue at the capital’s Adwa Museum recently, the Prime Minister stated “there will be no transitional government in Ethiopia.”
This absolute conclusion has led opposition parties and armed groups to consider staging a coup, according to The Reporter’s sources.
The government has repeatedly stated the ongoing National Dialogue and transitional justice initiatives will suffice to address the country’s political problems. However, opposition parties and academics have criticized the initiatives for a perceived lack of inclusivity, particularly for leaving out the armed groups in open conflict with the government.
Parliamentarians also echoed this concern during the PM’s address on Thursday.
“Before embarking on the National Dialogue, the government should have re-built trust with the public. Several serious human rights violations, mass killings of civilians, rapes, arbitrary imprisonments, kidnappings, destruction, and robberies have been conducted by government security forces. Because of their political opinions, several journalists, citizens, and MPs have been imprisoned. A number of this Parliament’s members have been imprisoned simply because of their views. Without ensuring justice for all these violations committed, it is difficult to rebuild trust between government and the public. This is crucial before the National Dialogue,” said Abebaw Desalew, an MP and member of the National Movement of Amhara (NAMA).
Abebaw also asked the PM about Habtamu Belayneh, a member of the House of Federation and NAMA whose whereabouts have been unknown for the last four months.
“The public trusts us. There is no way the public can mistrust a government that is building roads and instead trust an armed group that blocks roads. We are a democratically elected government. We have two years to stay in power, and nobody is going to touch that. If we deliver our development [promises], the public will re-elect us in the next national election,” responded the PM. “Our defense force is highly ethical and has never committed human rights violations. Armed forces are tempting the government. The armed forces have no power. When they get a few weapons, they think of entering Arat Kilo. When the government punishes them, they cry the government is committing genocide. But when the armed groups kill civilians, it is not genocide.”
In general, the PM presented the opposition forces and armed groups as having no political agenda that fits Ethiopia, and asserted that the armed groups can not match the ENDF. However, it is in contrast to statements from armed groups in Oromia and Amhara, who allege they have control over large swathes of territory.
Although the armed forces in Oromia and Amhara have no cooperation in the country and are fighting each other in some areas, sources say their representatives abroad are talking about the possibility of cooperation.
This was not mentioned during the PM’s address on Thursday. Instead, he spent much of his time discussing topics ranging from the economy and politics, to diplomacy and artificial intelligence (AI).
He disclosed the government is making efforts to remain neutral in the Sudanese war and help the country regain peace. Ethiopia is waiting until peace is realized before attempting to reclaim Al-fashga, a border area occupied by Sudan for the last few years, according to the PM.
“We fully recognize the sovereignty of Somalia and all neighboring countries. Our target is sea access. We asked all our neighbors for access to the sea, but they refused us. Our neighbor countries are availing their ports to foreign countries but refused us. So we inked an MoU with one neighboring nation who offered this to us. Somalia’s leaders are running from country to country to accuse us. If they really want a solution, it only takes just a flight to Addis Ababa. With just a few talks, we could solve it,” said Abiy.
The PM also called for Parliament to help the government and the country to focus on AI, biotechnology, augmented reality, space science, gene editing, robotics, cyber security and next generation concerns, “instead of always fighting over land, ethnicity and localized political topics.”
