On 21 July 2022, the Reuters news agency stated that “militants from Somali Islamist group Al-Shabaab attacked the Yeed and Aato villages near the border with Ethiopia, killing 17 people including three civilians and Ethiopian police officers.”

The Ethiopian security presence in the region and inside Somalia was part of an African peacekeeping force. The presence of Ethiopian forces in Somalia after 2006 was mainly in three areas, Baidoa, Gedo, and Bakool, and the country withdrew some troops in 2016.

Such reports raise two questions: the first is about the Ethiopian military’s efficiency in eliminating Al-Shabaab, and the second is whether there is a hidden purpose behind Ethiopia’s presence in Somalia.

Since the beginning of 2023, this presence has been enhanced, correlating with changes in Ethiopia’s military strategy in the region to make it more offensive and expand in geopolitical scope.

According to Somaliwebsite theSomali Guardian, “nearly 20,000 Ethiopian troops have entered Somalia, triggering concerns as Addis Ababa plans to recognise the break-away region of Somaliland amid tensions with the Somali Federal government.”

“Ethiopia was among other frontline countries who had agreed to provide more than 30,000 fresh troops at the request of the Somali government to launch a united operational campaign against Al-Shabaab.”

Despite the thousands of Ethiopian soldiers and the huge expense of this deployment, which costs $1 billion a year,Al-Shabaab Islamist grouphas remained undeterred. As a result, the UN and the African Union (AU) have decided to gradually withdraw peacekeeping troops, including Ethiopians, by December 2024.

According to the Global Conflict Tracker hosted by the US Council on Foreign Relations, “Al-Shabaab in Somalia remains one of Al-Qaeda’s strongest and most successful affiliates… Its goals are to destroy the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), rid their country of foreign forces, and establish a ‘Greater Somalia,’ joining all ethnic Somalis across East Africa under strict Islamic rule.”

Counter-terrorism operations are considered one of the most difficult military operations to be carried out by any country’s armed forces, because the adversary relies on irregular tactics, guerrilla attacks, and ambushes, as well as the use of civilians as human shields or the manipulation of young people in order to promote and spread its ideology.

As a result, eliminating terrorism requires cooperation between military forces and the relevant government. Terrorists and their weapons caches need to be tracked and destroyed, which necessitates highly trained and equipped soldiers able to carry out the required tasks. The ideology of the terrorist group is opposed across the relevant society.

However, it seems that the Ethiopian soldiers failed in their military role in Somalia in parallel with the political failure of coordination between the two countries, particularly with the Ethiopian Federal Government.

Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Aski Selassie emphasised last Friday that his country wishes to address conflicts with Somalia through negotiation and in relation to its recent agreement with the disputed region of Somaliland.

“Our desire is to continue the dialogue with Somalia to resolve our differences, while the Somali side is working to expand those differences,” he said. “Our foreign policy puts the building of neighbourly relations that take into account common interests first.”

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated in January that his country had no desire to stoke disagreements with Somalia’s government and people. He emphasised that Ethiopia’s request for access to the Red Sea was its only interest.

President of Somaliland Muse Bihi Abdi said that Ethiopia seeks to lease part of itscoastline to establish a naval baseand not to conduct commercial activities as previously thought.This remains the Ethiopian objective in Somalia: to establish a naval base that can be used to exert geopolitical influence, something which the Somali Federal Government rejects.

Last Sunday,Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed said that Ethiopia hasoccupied Somali territories. It was an issue that remains unresolved, he said, and Ethiopia was now dreaming of annexing more. He added that Somalia would not allow Ethiopia to reach the Red Sea by force.

The BBC recently reported that Djibouti is ready to hand a Red Sea port to Ethiopia, which would take responsibility for its management. DjiboutiForeign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssefconfirmed the decision, saying it aimed at calming tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.

The port is Tajoura, roughly 100 km from the Ethiopian border. Will this port be enough for Ethiopia, or will it be simply further evidence of the Ethiopian government’s failure in Somalia and the loss of an old ally because of reckless political decisions?