Basic

Anniversaries of key global events are usually a time to look back and assess how the world today has been changed. But as we approach the one-year mark of both the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas and the initial waves of retaliatory strikes in Gaza, that approach feels insufficient – mainly because it arrives at a critical juncture of the still ongoing and now regional and multifaceted conflict.

The Oct. 1 missile attack by Iran on Israel, in response to the Israeli assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, is a case in point. What matters more than the strike is what happens next. Monash University’s Ran Porat looks at the options in front of Israel. He notes that while the IDF is already stretched a little thin, what with fighting enemies on two fronts, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may use the Iranian strike as a pretext for a devastating blow on Tehran, potentially targeting the Islamic Republic’s critical infrastructure, its nuclear capabilities, or possibly even its leadership.

U.S. Air Force Middle East analyst Aaron Pilkington looks at the equation from the other side. He argues that Iran had little choice other than to respond to the Israeli advance in Lebanon. For years, Tehran has relied on a series of proxies as its main deterrent in the region. But over the past year, one such group, Hamas, has been degraded to the point of being unable to mount an offense, while another, Hezbollah, seems to be going the same way.

Elsewhere this week, our contributors have been looking at how climate change is having a significant negative impact on the wildlife and fauna of the Serengeti and analyzing the VP debate in the U.S.