Basic

The problem with unpredictable leaders is, by their very nature, it is hard to predict what they might do. But with Donald Trump we are at an advantage; we have been here before. And we know enough about Trump’s record, his style of governance and what he has said in the election campaign to make a fair analysis of what is to come.

Indeed governments around the world are already preparing for what they perceive to be coming down the pipeline: tariffs, trade wars, shifts on the environment and a somewhat unorthodox approach to diplomacy that can make it difficult to discern who is a friend of Washington, and who a foe.

Take Europe. As University of Surrey’s Amelia Hadfield writes, Trump has been ramping up his criticism of NATO of late, suggesting that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to allies who fail to pay their fair share. “Trump’s options regarding Ukraine are simple: either arm it, or deny it aid,” writes Hadfield, “The former risks freezing battle lines and forcing an imperfect peace on Ukraine, the latter gives Russia’s President Vladimir Putin a satisfactory victory, bringing an aggressive Russia to the very doorstep of the EU and NATO.”

Similarly, “a serious question mark hangs over Trump’s commitment to the defence of Taiwan and other treaty allies in Asia, including the Philippines, South Korea, and potentially Japan,” writes international security expert Stefan Wolff.

As to the Middle East, the ripples of Trump’s victory are already being felt. While the votes were still being counted, Iran’s currency was plummeting. Traders in Tehran fear a return of the “maximum pressure” strategy that previously hurt Iran’s economy, as well as a freer hand for Israel to strike critical facilities within its adverdsary’s borders, Brandeis University’s Nader Habibi explains.