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EastAfricaMonitor.com: East Africa is getting more dangerous, despite economic progress

Posted by: Berhane Habtemariam

Date: Saturday, 19 August 2017

East Africa is getting more dangerous, despite economic progress

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The latest Global Peace Index says the world is slightly more peaceful this year than it was in 2016, but East Africa is one exception. Political instability fluctuates unpredictably in the region and a number of conflicts have added to an already volatile environment – but the Global Peace Index only goes so far.

The report, conducted by Vision of Humanity aims to measure how peaceful countries are. Which doesn’t count for health issues, environmental concerns, food security and most types of crime.

These issues are becoming more prevalent in many countries, particularly as ongoing drought culminates into much wider issues. So, despite the development and democratisation of East Africa, is the region getting more dangerous?

East Africa in 2017

A look at the global map on conflicts shows how bad the situation across much of Africa right now – and particularly in the East. Compare that to how things were in 2008, according to the Global Peace Index, and the decline of security in Africa looks pretty apparent.

Since then, the region has seen South Sudan gain independence, only to plunge into a civil war of its own. Burundi is also teetering on the edge of civil conflict and the situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate. Then we have the recent deadly protests in Ethiopia and subsequent government crackdown – a major contributor to East Africa’s lower ranking than this time last year.

In fact, Ethiopia and Burundi are singled out as the two countries to have deteriorated the most in the latest study.

Djibouti is the exception, making it into the top five countries for increasing peace over the last year. While the likes of Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda have been fairly steady over the last few years.

Meanwhile, Sudan performs consistently poorly in the study and Eritrea is steadily making its way down the ranking.

The impact of drought

While insecurity appears to be spreading across East Africa, it’s not the only crisis people are facing. Ongoing droughts leave millions of vulnerable people facing starvation, displacement and a range of health implications. Crime is on the rise as rival groups fight over dwindling livestock and crop supplies.

The situations in Somalia and South Sudan, where people face starvation and civil war, are particularly brutal.

Conflict and food insecurity exacerbate each other and they both contribute to the mass of displacement and migration across East Africa. Refugee and displacement camps aim to provide refuge but they also contribute to a range of other health implications – most notably contagious outbreaks like malaria and sanitation-related outbreaks like cholera.

These are the realities waiting for those who are lucky enough to survive their escape from starvation and war. Many don’t.

The decline of governance

The 2016 Ibrahim Index of African Governance claimed to show the decline in quality governance across African nations between 2005 and 2015. It cited “worrying levels of deterioration” resulting in violence, corruptions and political oppression.

When you compare these findings to the situation in South Sudan, Burundi and Eritrea, it’s difficult to argue against this conclusion. However, there’s a more subtle contribution to the rise of big men politicians – aka presidents for life. Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni is cemented in his position and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame has just secured his third term in power. Meanwhile, Tanzania’s John Magufuli is raising eyebrows with his “Bulldozer” rule and Ethiopia has proven how far it will go to tackle opposition.

Media oppression and political intimidation are rampant across these countries. Those caught in the firing line are often detained for lengthy spells, tortured or simply disappear.

Minority gains

It’s not all bad news for the region, though. Economic development in countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia are at least improving the quality of life for some people, in some ways. It comes at the cost of political freedom and the poorest communities gain little from it, but there are areas of improvement that shouldn’t be ignored.

For the likes of Burundi, South Sudan and the region’s war-torn countries, the silver linings are more difficult to spot. Conflict has killed their economies, development has stalled and the outlook is bleak for those who aren’t at least already financially secure.

Sadly, those who profit from Africa’s war and money games are protected from the horrors they create. Why tackle corruption when it’s lining your own pocket? Sympathy from politicians with full stomachs for those starving on arid land is in shorter supply than the rain they desperately need.


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