Summer will finish later than normal in northern Sahel with above-normal rains in Mali, Niger and Sudan during parts of November. The latest models predict a wet winter season in the Desert Locust recession from November to February in northwest Somalia and the Gulf of Aden. Farther north along the Red Sea coast of Eritrea, Sudan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, there is more diversity among the model forecasts. This uncertainty is due to El Nino in the months ahead, where a classical forecast would favour less rainfall. In spring, there may be slightly wetter rains starting in February in southeast Iran, southwest Pakistan, and maybe the interior of Saudi Arabia.
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