The region’s future as usual remains conflicted, confused and uncertain. In the past, at least, Ethiopia was considered stable. Today, however, even Ethiopia is a hotbed of armed insurgencies and joined Somalia in this regard. Poverty, religious extremism and interventions from major powers also mark the region.
There used to be territorial claims of Somalia on other Horn African countries. Today there seems to be a reversal of territorial claims with Ethiopia claiming now Somali territories and seas. The region is also currently exposed to intervention of newly rich Arabian Gulf states in its affairs with the United Arab Emirates on the forefront. Armed insurgencies and violence is increasing and mostly in Ethiopia. Debates and discussions remain non-existent and political systems seem to have contracted to one party tribe or clan dominated ruling systems even in the chaotic Somalia where clan anarchy thrives.
The epicenter of all these movements and changes is Ethiopia, which instead of leading the region to peace and stability as the largest country, seems itself to be standing precariously on a pivotal moment in its history. Will it breakup into its multitude of component parts – the Tigrayan, the Amhara, the Oromo, the Somali, the Afar, the Sidama, the Hadia and the Southern Nations and Peoples and others or will it stay together, united?
There was a similar moment in the history of the region in the early nineties of the last century, when the military regimes of both Somalia and Ethiopia collapsed, and rebel groups moved in to fill the void in governance. Since they were originally organized ethnically on tribe and clan basis in the first place, they did not create viable ruling systems but only entrenched the ethnic-based ruling officialdom and the one-party systems of today.
Somalia is currently organized on clan-based regional states while Ethiopia is organized federally as tribes or different nationalities like the Tigray State, the Amhara State, the Sidama State, the Somali State and the Afar State and many others. The oppositions to the ruling systems are all organized ethnically as well. The remaining two countries of Eritrea and Djibouti in the region are also under one party ruling systems.
The tensions in the largest state of the region, Ethiopia, have led it to export its internal woes to the neighboring countries and has threatened the smaller coastal countries of Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia, through its quest to have access to a sea, which it already legally has, but which it denies. It actually wants to have its own sea. How could this be possible when it is a landlocked country?
Ethiopia like Miguel de Cervantes’ Don Quixote of the 16th century adventure story should dig a large ditch in its large land space, probably the Danakil Depression, and then request one of the neighboring countries to dig another trench through which the sea water passes, of course, at a rent, to fill the large ditch and hence create the desired sea. This would perhaps create the eighth wonder of the world!
The recent moves of Ethiopia has only worsened the security situation of the region, which was already in a precarious situation. It is almost re-igniting the old antagonisms between Somalia and Ethiopia, which seemed to have been healing through all these past three decades. It is also reviving the old Somali quest for its lost territories in Ethiopia which stretch all the way to near Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, thus forcing it to defend what it already has of Somali territories instead of adding and taking more Somali lands and seas.
This would bring other actors from beyond the region to get involved in the wars of the region and such a war will not remain between Somalia and Ethiopia only but would burn the whole region including Eritrea, Djibouti and even Sudan, which has also nothing to lose. It has already been smashed to smithereens by forces blamed on some of the Gulf countries, mostly the UAE, which is also pushing Ethiopia into the new aggressive policies, it has adopted lately. The foreign actors would no doubt include Egypt, which Somalia has already called for assistance and Türkiye, which has signed a security arrangement with Somalia to protect the seas of Somalia, The UAE and other Gulf countries, may side with Ethiopia, and of course, the old colonial countries and others would get also get involved.
But does the region need to have all this turmoil and disturbances? It has suffered enough over the last several decades through wars, insurgencies, tribal and clan warfare and violent government changes? The region needs to calm down and invest in development and better governance.
Investing in development, strengthening governance, and promoting regional cooperation are essential steps towards a more peaceful and prosperous Horn of Africa States. The continuation of hostilities both within each country and within the region, involving foreign parties, at times, would only exacerbate the regions’ stability, making it more unstable and disturbed. This would only undermine regional diplomacy which should have been working on cooperating on many matters which should have been good for the region such as connected transport systems, investments within the region, attracting others to invest in the region instead of war machines and those who profit from violence.
The region should have invested in its geostrategic location, attracting not only mobile tourist populations across the globe but also, because of its large youthful population manufacturing companies and indeed trading companies as well. There would be a large consumer population once, the youthful population is provided with better and more reliable incomes. The region owns some 160 million people with over seventy per cent under thirty, who have long working lives ahead of them.
There is no need to reverse the healing process that was going on in the region through new territorial mission impossible quests for unattainable seas or undiplomatic interferences in the affairs of each country. The region could be working together and cooperating in bettering the lives of the poor citizens of the region, which have not seen the peaceful lives that other peoples of other regions across the world enjoy. It all boils down to people working together and correcting the mindsets of their leaders when they go astray or dwindle into fruitless efforts that only bring misery to their people.
