In a joint press conference with his Somali and Eritrean counterparts last Saturday in Cairo, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aati said that “the issue of Red Sea security depends solely on the will of the coastal states,” and that “it is absolutely unacceptable for any non-coastal state to have a presence in the Red Sea, whether the presence is military or otherwise.”

The Egyptian minister's statements expressed Cairo's firm stance on Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, after the latter sought to build a military and civilian base in Somaliland, the unrecognized breakaway region of the Somali Republic. The controversial agreement signed in January 2024 between Addis Ababa and the region prompted the federal government of Somalia to turn to Egypt and sign a defense agreement with it last August.

Amid tensions with Somalia, which have eased in recent days, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said last October that his country seeks peaceful access to the Red Sea and maintains a clear position on the issue.

Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea have launched a tripartite cooperation mechanism, seen as a defensive alliance against Ethiopian ambitions. The three countries held their first summit in Asmara last October, and their foreign ministers held their first meeting in Cairo this week. The three countries affirmed their support for the unity of Somalia, and stressed efforts "to enhance security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region."

Regarding Egypt’s concerns about Ethiopia’s arrival in the Red Sea, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahid, an expert in national security and African affairs, says that Ethiopia’s hostile behavior towards all its neighbors and its creation of crises is what is pushing Cairo towards its current position for fear of transferring these crises to the Red Sea.

Abdel Wahid added, in statements to RT, that "Ethiopia's desire to establish a military or civilian naval base in the Somali port of Berbera has disturbed the Egyptian authorities due to Ethiopia's hostile behavior in the region," explaining that there is fear that Ethiopia will act "with the same hostile behavior if it reaches the Red Sea, and thus it will harm the Red Sea and the coastal countries."

Abdul Wahid listed Ethiopia's crises with its neighbors, saying that they are related to borders and water. To the north, there is an ongoing border hostility with Sudan over Al-Fashaga, and to the east, it has border disputes with Eritrea over Badme, in addition to the hostility with Djibouti, "even though it turns a blind eye to it due to interests and its use of its lands as a transit point for Ethiopian products." Addis Ababa also has hostility with Somalia to the south over the Ogaden region.

In addition to the border crises, Ethiopia has “used water to create new hostilities,” according to Abdel Wahid, explaining that “Ethiopia built the Renaissance Dam to reduce the share of Egypt and Sudan, built dams on the Omo River with Kenya and reduced the water in Lake Turkana in Kenya, and built dams on the Juba and Shabelle rivers and reduced the amount of fresh water flowing into Somalia.”

With the multiplicity of crises and conflicts in the Horn of Africa region, Egypt fears that the conflict will be transferred to the sea and its interests will be harmed, especially with the presence of the Suez Canal at the northern end, which is one of the most important sources of income for the Egyptian state, and its damage in the current war due to the Houthis in Yemen has caused the Egyptian treasury to suffer huge losses.

The Egyptian national security expert, speaking to RT, said that Ethiopia does not mind entering into partnerships with countries that take negative positions towards Egypt, and therefore it may enter into alliances or be used as one of the tools of the great powers to terrorize Egypt politically, stressing that "this is not welcome."

He noted that the Horn of Africa region is undergoing complex changes that may lead to divisions in some countries, "and it is unfortunate that Ethiopia is encouraging them", which itself is suffering from internal crises and divisions.