Date: Friday, 21 March 2025
PM Abiy Ahmed's Statements on Gaining Sea Access by Force
BinTake @bintekbin
March 20, 2025
This report presents evidence that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made multiple statements suggesting or insinuating that Ethiopia might use force to gain sea access from Eritrea if peaceful means fail. The evidence spans from July 2023 to March 2025 and includes statements reported by international media outlets as well as content from Amharic-language sources. The most direct evidence comes from reported statements to businessmen and investors, where PM Abiy explicitly mentioned using force if peaceful means fail to secure port access.
In a speech PM Abiy Ahmed made to parliament on March 20, 2025, he stated that Ethiopia has no interest in acquiring a seaport from Eritrea by force. However, in recent months, Ethiopian government media airwaves have been dominated by propaganda directed against Eritrea, emphasizing that Ethiopia must secure ownership of Assab, whether through peaceful negotiations or by force. This rhetoric has not been limited to members of the Prosperity Party (PP) elites but has extended to individuals at the ministerial level, high-ranking military officers, and a former Ethiopian president, all of whom have leveled unfounded accusations against Eritrea. Furthermore, the PP has mobilized its social media networks, deploying an army of trolls to spread anti-Eritrea propaganda, with a primary focus on justifying the acquisition of Assab by force. Despite his latest denial, PM Abiy has repeatedly suggested and insinuated in the past that the use of force remains a potential option.
Background Context
Ethiopia became landlocked in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence, losing its direct access to the Red Sea. Since then, Ethiopia has primarily relied on Djibouti for port access, which PM Abiy has described as costly and unsustainable for Ethiopia's growing population and economy. In recent years, PM Abiy has increasingly framed sea access as an "existential issue" for Ethiopia, making it a central focus of his foreign policy rhetoric.
Key Evidence
July 2023: Meeting with Investors
As reported by Al Jazeera (November 14, 2023), during a meeting with investors in July 2023, PM Abiy Ahmed "openly and unambiguously said that while Ethiopia wants to 'get a port through peaceful means', if that plan fails, it would not hesitate to 'use force'."
This appears to be the earliest documented instance where PM Abiy explicitly mentioned using force to gain sea access.
October 13, 2023: Parliamentary Speech
PM Abiy delivered a significant speech to the Ethiopian parliament that was televised and widely reported:
According to Al Jazeera, Abiy said Ethiopia has "natural rights" to directly access the Red Sea, and if denied these rights, "there will be no fairness and justice and if there is no fairness and justice, it's a matter of time, we will fight."
Ethiopia Observer reported him saying: "If we don't find an alternative through dialogue, discussion today... It could be dangerous," regarding Ethiopia's pursuit of sea access.
He also stated: "The Red Sea and the Nile are intimately linked to Ethiopia, serving as the pillars that could either propel the country's progress or lead to its demise."
October-November 2023: Amharic Media Coverage
Following PM Abiy's parliamentary speech, several Amharic-language videos appeared discussing his statements:
A YouTube video titled "ቀይ ባህር እንወስዳለን በጉልበት ወይም በስምምነት" (Translation: "We will take the Red Sea by force or by agreement") directly references gaining access "by force or by agreement" in its title.
Another YouTube video titled "ቀይ ባህር ቀጣዩ የኢትዮጵያ እና ኤርትራ ጦርነት መነሻ ይሆን? የጠ/ርአብይ ንግግር ስለ ወደብ" (Translation: "Will the Red Sea be the next cause of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea? PM Abiy's speech about the port") analyzes whether Abiy's statements could potentially lead to conflict.
November 7, 2023: BBC Reporting
BBC News published an article titled "Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed eyes Red Sea port, inflaming tensions" which reported that PM Abiy Ahmed told a meeting of businessmen that "we want to get a port by peaceful means. But if that fails we will use force."
March 14, 2025: Reuters Reporting
A Reuters article titled “Why are Ethiopia and Eritrea on the brink of a possible war?” mentioned that “Eritrean officials have bristled at repeated public declarations by Abiy since 2023 that landlocked Ethiopia has a right to sea access,” indicating that Abiy has continued to make such declarations over a period of more than a year.
Analysis of Rhetoric Patterns
The evidence reveals several consistent patterns in PM Abiy Ahmed's rhetoric regarding Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea:
Dual Approach: Throughout his statements, Abiy consistently presents a dual approach - expressing preference for peaceful negotiations while simultaneously suggesting willingness to use force if necessary.
Escalation of Language: Starting with the July 2023 meeting with investors, Abiy has framed sea access as an existential issue for Ethiopia, with statements becoming increasingly assertive over time.
Sustained Campaign: The evidence spans from July 2023 to March 2025, indicating this is not an isolated statement but rather a sustained position over nearly two years.
Existential Framing: Abiy consistently frames sea access as vital for Ethiopia's survival and future development, particularly in light of its growing population.
International Reactions
Neighboring countries have expressed concern about PM Abiy's statements:
Eritrea: The Eritrean ambassador to Japan, Estifanos Afeworki, wrote on Twitter saying that "There is no if and but about Eritrea's sovereignty and territorial integrity. No amount of illegitimate instigation, propaganda, conspiracy, and defamation can change this truth."
ccording to Al Jazeera, Djibouti, Somalia, and other regional countries have also expressed concern about Ethiopia's rhetoric regarding sea access.
Conclusion
Based on the evidence collected from multiple sources, including international media reports and Amharic-language content, there is substantial documentation that PM Abiy Ahmed has suggested or insinuated about getting sea access by force if necessary from Eritrea. The most direct evidence comes from his reported statements to businessmen and investors in July 2023, where he explicitly mentioned using force if peaceful means fail.
His parliamentary speech in October 2023, while using more diplomatic language in some reports, still contained references to "fighting" if Ethiopia's "natural rights" to sea access are denied. The titles of Amharic videos discussing the topic directly reference gaining access "by force or by agreement," suggesting this was a known position of the Prime Minister in Amharic-language discourse.
This pattern of statements over nearly two years indicates a consistent position rather than isolated or out-of-context remarks, providing strong evidence that PM Abiy Ahmed has indeed suggested using force to gain sea access if peaceful means fail.
References
BBC News. (November 7, 2023). Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed eyes Red Sea port, inflaming tensions. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67332811
Al Jazeera. (November 14, 2023) . Abiy Ahmed's imperial ambitions are bad news for Africa, and the world. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/11/14/abiy-ahmeds-imperial-ambitions-are-bad-news-for-africa-and-the-world
Ethiopia Observer. (October 15, 2023) . "Securing Red Sea access vital for Ethiopia's survival," Abiy Ahmed. https://www.ethiopiaobserver.com/2023/10/15/securing-red-sea-access-vital-for-ethiopias-survival-abiy-ahmed/
Reuters. (March 14, 2025) . Why are Ethiopia and Eritrea on the brink of a possible war?https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/why-are-ethiopia-eritrea-brink-possible-war-2025-03-14/
YouTube Video: "ቀይ ባህር እንወስዳለን በጉልበት ወይም በስምምነት" (We will take the Red Sea by force or by agreement) . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkUAIirRadw
YouTube Video: "ቀይ ባህር ቀጣዩ የኢትዮጵያ እና ኤርትራ ጦርነት መነሻ ይሆን? የጠ/ር አብይ ንግግር ስለወደብ" (Will the Red Sea be the next cause of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea? PM Abiy's speech about the port) . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45yXqwRA_2E
