Dehai News

Abiy Ahmed’s Delusional Quest for Power

Abiy Ahmed deludes himself into believing he is a grand strategist, but his reckless political maneuvers have come at the cost of millions of lives. He operates without any deep ethical consideration of the catastrophic consequences his decisions bring upon the Ethiopian people. The disastrous state of Ethiopia—politically, economically, and security-wise—is the direct result of his unchecked thirst for power, his imperial-like delusions, and his disregard for good governance and three hundred sixty degrees turn away from what he promised when he came to the helm of state power. His actions mirror the TPLF’s past self-serving schemes, prioritizing personal and party dominance over Ethiopia’s long-term stability. The Ethiopian people—now suffering in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara in the main—are paying a heavy price in lives, limbs, blood, bones, and tears. All human suffering and tragedy do not mean much to the sociopathic autocrat. 

At the same time, claims that Eritrea might align with the TPLF remain highly unlikely. Eritrean leaders have historically been strategic thinkers who understand the long-term stakes. The deep-rooted animosity between the TPLF and Eritrea makes such an alliance improbable. Yet, it is tragic and ironic to watch Abiy’s supporters blindly defend a leader who has systematically betrayed the Ethiopian people. His administration, dominated by the Oromia Prosperity Party (PP), has weaponized ethnocentric rhetoric to divide and rule, engaged in aggressive land grabs of other regions in Ethiopia, engaged in rampant violation of human rights, and suffocated Ethiopia under authoritarian rule.

A Calculated Distraction: “Access to the Sea”

Rather than addressing Ethiopia’s dire economic and political crises, Abiy Ahmed has manufactured a new narrative to sustain his autocratic rule—the so-called “access to the sea” argument. His latest expansionist rhetoric about Assab is a calculated distraction aimed at:

✔ Stoking nationalist sentiments to shift focus from his government’s colossal failures.
✔ Fueling dangerous warmongering to justify his increasing repression.
✔ Masking the economic collapse and political unrest within Ethiopia.

Ethiopia’s Deepening Crisis Under Abiy Ahmed

Beyond his dangerous rhetoric, Ethiopia is unraveling under multiple crises:

• The War in Amhara: Abiy foolishly believed he could crush the resistance in “two weeks”—yet two years later, the war rages on, with tens of thousands of deaths, mass civilian massacres, and drone attacks. Infrastructure worth billions of dollars have been destroyed, and more than 70% of Amhara’s territory is now controlled or influenced by the Fano insurgency.
• The Oromia Insurgency: The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues to hold significant territory, openly challenging Abiy’s rule in Oromia.
• Absence of the Rule of Law: Abiy’s security forces have conducted arbitrary mass detentions, ethnic-based persecution of the Amhara, mass incarceration of journalists and political dissidents.
• A Breakdown of Law and Order: Crime and insecurity have surged across Ethiopia, even in the capital, Addis Ababa.
• Widespread Corruption: Corruption runs rampant across all levels of government, further eroding trust in the state.
• A Collapsing Economy: Skyrocketing inflation has pushed millions into poverty, leaving ordinary Ethiopians struggling to afford necessities.

Ethiopia is not just unstable—it is on the brink of national disintegration because of the compounding effect of multiple crisis on all fronts. Yet rather than tackling these existential threats, Abiy Ahmed is fueling warmongering narratives that could engulf the entire Horn of Africa in chaos.

War Over Assab is Madness

The idea of going to war over Assab is not just reckless, it is suicidal. The consequences would be catastrophic:

1. It Violates International Law and Would Have Catastrophic Consequences

• Any attempt to seize Assab militarily would violate UN and AU charters, jeopardizing Ethiopia’s international standing.
• Ethiopia risks being labeled an aggressor, leading to crippling diplomatic isolation and sanctions.
• There is no justification for annexing another country’s territory. This is not Crimea, and Ethiopia is not Russia as some foolishly argue as of late. 
• War would bring economic and humanitarian devastation—tens of thousands would be displaced, and Ethiopia would descend into yet another endless war.
• It would drag other actors into the conflict, including Somalia, Sudan, Djibouti, Egypt, and Yemen, potentially leading to a regional proxy war.
• Terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab and other extremists could exploit the instability, threatening the security of Ethiopia and its neighbors.

2. It Distracts from Ethiopia’s Real Crisis

• Ethiopians are not demanding a war over ports—they are demanding justice, peace, dignity, and basic services like food, water, healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
• Instead of focusing on economic recovery, Abiy has prioritized vanity projects, including palaces worth over $13 billion, while millions suffer in grinding poverty.
• A corrupt, authoritarian government should not be allowed to escape accountability by fabricating a foreign conflict.

3. Abiy Ahmed’s Betrayal of Ethiopia’s Long-Term Interests

• Eritreans stood by and sacrificed for Ethiopia during the darkest hours even when Abiy’s power was hanging in balance.  Yet Abiy’s reckless warmongering betrays the shared history of both nations.
• A responsible Ethiopian government would seek regional cooperation, partnership, and economic integration, not a destructive war that could end in scenarios far worse than Abiy anticipates.

4. Ports Can Be Secured Peacefully

• Economic growth requires diplomacy, not war.
• Ethiopia already has access to multiple ports, and no neighboring country has denied Ethiopia access to trade routes.
• Ethiopia can negotiate agreements with Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, and Somalia to ensure stable and long-term trade partnerships.

A Dangerous Deception

Abiy Ahmed’s “access to the sea” narrative is not about national security, it is a calculated political ploy too:

✔ Distract from his regime’s failures in governance, the economy, and security.
✔ Expand his imperial fantasies of an “East African Oromo empire.”
✔ Strengthen and entrench his Oromia PP’s dominance over the political, economic, and security domains of the nation while silencing opposition voices across Ethiopia.

But Ethiopians must not fall for this deception. We have seen this same tactic before: In 2000, the TPLF fueled nationalist sentiment, promising to reclaim Assab—but the result was 100,000 Ethiopian lives lost in a futile war. Eighteen years of ethnic dictatorship followed under the TPLF-led EPRDF.

Ethiopia Must Not Repeat the Same Mistake

True leadership is not about waging endless wars—it is about securing peace, stability, and prosperity for future generations. Ethiopia does not need another reckless military adventure. Ethiopia needs visionary leadership that prioritizes diplomacy, regional partnerships, and sustainable economic development that benefits all the peoples of the sub region—not the ego-driven fantasies and empire building adventures of delusional autocrats.

A war over Assab would not just shatter peoples’ hopes and aspirations of peace, partnership, and development, it would ignite a regional inferno, destabilizing the entire Horn of Africa. The international community must apply diplomatic pressure on Abiy Ahmed before it is too late. The choice is clear: peace, diplomacy, and sustainable economic growth—or chaos, destruction, and irreversible decline. Ethiopians must choose wisely, ethically, legally, and strategically—not emotionally, not nostalgically, and certainly not under the influence of Abiy Ahmed’s dangerous propaganda diversionary tactics to shift the focus away from the plethora of internal strife and crisis he either exacerbated or created.