Date: Tuesday, 17 March 2026
https://ericzuesse.substack.com/p/how-the-iran-war-will-cause-a-global
https://theduran.com/how-the-iran-war-will-cause-a-global-financial-crisis-yanis
How the Iran War Will Cause a Global Financial Crisis (Yanis Varoufakis) | The Chris Hedges Report
17 March 2026, posted here by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPhV5bc8d6Q&t=240s
“How the Iran War Will Cause a Global Financial Crisis (Yanis Varoufakis) | The Chris Hedges Report”
16 March 2026
4 minutes
You are referring to the unintended consequences of a very stupid war, into which uh Donald Trump has been
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trapped by Benjamin Netanyahu, because you know, Chris, uh up until now I think that Trump was winning everything.
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He won the uh trade war, the tariff war with the Europeans. He was um very
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successful in weaponizing big tech and cryptocurrencies with a genius act. From his perspective, he was winning. And
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this is uh this uh um ridiculous campaign in which he has been sucked
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into for reasons which I don't think we will know until quite a few years pass,
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uh this is going to have long running long long-standing effects uh long-term effects. Uh Chris, I was reading in the
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Wall Street Journal in the Financial Times some wishful thinking articles uh in which the the comparison
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was being made between uh what's happening now in Iran and uh liberation day last year. Remember when there was a
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spasm in the markets? The markets got panicky and jittery after the announcement of the huge tariffs that
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effectively suspended world trade for a week or so. And so the you know the Financial Times and the Wall Street
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Journal wishful thinking goes along the lines of well it didn't turn out that bad. Uh within a month or two or three
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uh markets were back. Um the economy um shook off all uh you know uh concerns
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about uh recession and well maybe if this ends soon in the next few weeks uh
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then uh we will again be able to uh proclaim in a couple of months that uh
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it was a a silly thing that had happened but you know uh world capitalism US-based capitalism dollarized
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capitalism um proved resilient. Well, I don't think that this is possible. Not only because this war is not going to end very
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quickly. I don't think um, none of us have has a crystal ball, but I think that Donald Trump has been well and truly caught in this trap that Netanyahu
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has set up for him. Uh but the main point I want to make is that there is a world of difference between what
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happened last year with the tariffs and liberation day and now. Uh and allow me to to make the point about you know why
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it was that liberation day tariffs proved to be transient in terms of their effects and why this one is not going to
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be transient for more or less the same reasons. So last year when uh Trump came in with his gigantic tariffs especially
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against the Chinese and so on firstly uh it was clear within a few weeks that
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demand in the United States for foreign exports was elastic enough so that much of the burden did not fall on American consumers but it fell on importers.
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The second and very important crucial uh reason why in the end Trump didn't suffer from liberation day is because at
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the same time as there was a recessionary wave there was another wave in the opposite direction a gigantic uh
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investment spree by big tech on AI uh and that lifted the markets in a way
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that satisfied the Donald. The third reason is that tariffs actually worked from his perspective. uh those tariffs
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managed to crowd into the United States substantial capital inflows. So I know lots of German companies that uh
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relocated to the United States like Bas and Mercedes-Benz and so on. Japanese companies uh investing, Taiwanese
8:00
8 minutes
companies investing. And the fourth important reason why liberation day did not have longlasting effects was that
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central banks around the world not just the Fed were in the process of reducing of cutting interest rates of loosening
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monetary policy. Now compare and contrast with what's going on now.
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Firstly, uh demand in the United States is not elastic um to increases in gas
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prices. uh the the vast majority of the very people the blue collar workers that voted Trump in are suffering exorbitant increases in uh their transport cost.
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Let's uh not forget that uh the average uh MAGA supporter uh voter uh travels
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100 miles a day in uh very thirsty um SUVs, cars, and that goes straight into
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um you know the increase in the gas price goes straight into their family budget. Uh the second one, remember the
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AI investment spree that saved Donald's uh uh bacon last year? Well, AI is
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extremely energy intense. Uh it's very hungry for electricity. So the
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investment spree that we witnessed over the last 12 months is probably going to peter out because
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already there were qumss about the um the the logic of that investment that
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was going so heavily into AI. But now that AI is becoming so expensive to run and to train and all that, uh well that
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is going to reduce very substantially the countervaling effects of more
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investment in AI and you know beyond that um central banks central banks are already because
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yields in 10-year bonds uh are rising central banks either are going to increase now interest rates or they're
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not going to reduce them according to the timeline that they had um set out for themselves and which um financial
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markets had already factored in. And lastly uh last year this time unemployment was not increasing in the
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last two or three months unemployment both in in the United States and in the United Kingdom and I very much fear also in the European Union are on the way up.
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So if you take all these factors together,
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uh you'll see why I'm coming to the conclusion that uh this war, this inane
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war by Donald Trump is um even within the United States, not not looking at
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Bangladesh or Japan as you were, you know, very accurately portraying those economies as being in dire straits, the
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United States economy itself, which is what really matters to Donald Trump, the European economy, the British economy,
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the West in general is entering a a serious vortex of pain.
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HEDGES: Yeah, the Iranians have made clear they and they're well aware of their ability to inflict this kind of pain. Uh but
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they have made clear that uh this conflict is not going to end for some time until that
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uh pain is felt. VAROUFAKIS: Uh and I think it's important to note that uh the Iranians
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have realized that this is an existential struggle. The [Iranians], both last June and now when Israel and the United States
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attacked Iran, they were in the midst of negotiations. Uh so the Iranians can hardly trust another negotiating
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team. uh where do you see or or what what do you see the you know as the weeks progress we've already seen
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especially in the global south or in countries uh some of the countries I mentioned even Japan that this is already a crisis paint for us a picture
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you know uh a few weeks from now a few months from now how dire this can become and what the consequences are
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without wanting to you know cause panic amongst their viewers. This is really serious because um as you mentioned uh
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Japan takes 90% of its energy or of its oil and natural gas from Qatar from
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Saudi Arabia from the Gulf. Uh the Japanese economy is a significant cog in the international western machine. uh
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and when you when you look at what's happening in particularly in Bangladesh already in Bangladesh the textile
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industry is on a go slow uh simply because they are fearful that uh you know their gas supply and therefore
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their electricity production is going uh to come crashing to a halt as a result
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of the total dependence of Bangladeshi electricity production generation on uh uh the Gulf. So the the
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snowballing effect is really what matters. It's not so much the primary effects, it's the secondary and tertiary effects and those are going to continue
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even if uh as I said before the strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow because it takes a long time for these supply chains as we
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found out during the pandemic uh to to be kickstarted again. Uh and if you take
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into consideration that already we are in a macroeconomic recessionary kind of
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trajectory then in conjunction with the fact that as you said the Iranians are not about
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to agree with Donald Trump even if Donald Trump wants an agreement with them even if he wants to end the bombing
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now uh simply because you know they've been taken to the cleaners a number of times. Um, and it's not just recent. U,
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you'll recall that in 2015 there was an agreement with the White House back then with Barack Obama. Um, I remember when I
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visited the White House uh in April 2015 and I had a meeting with him. I was only interested in talking about Greece as
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you can imagine at the time because we were in the doldrums. Uh, and he didn't want to talk about Greece. He didn't talk about Europe. He said the only thing he want to talk about was Iran and
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how he was keen to see Iran being reintegrated into the world financial circuits. Uh and he did go through with
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that agreement. The Iranians were very happy. The Europeans were very happy and then Donald Trump gets elected and tears up that agreement. So, you know, the the
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Iranians have had uh a good 10 11 years uh to contemplate uh what it is that
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they can get out of um a peace deal, an agreement uh a deal, any kind of deal with the United States. And the answer to that is not much. You they really,
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you know, the West is simply not reliable. Um they're not reliable during negotiations. Don't forget that the
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bombing of Iran now started while negotiations were taking place uh with Oman playing the role of go between um
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and they can't trust the West. They can't trust uh especially Washington uh even after a deal has been concluded. So
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they're not going to um do do any favors to Japan, to um you know, Canada, to Australia, to Britain,
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to Germany, to France, let alone to the United States, that is all those uh powers which uh despite their um
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declarations of wanting to become autonomous and sovereign from the United States,
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nevertheless, they make their military bases available to the United States,
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bombers, uh, which from there, um, you know, bomb the smitherines out of Iran,
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uh, kill, you know, school children in,
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uh, um, in their territory. So, let's brace ourselves for a major tsunami
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that's going to hit us. It's already been hitting us, uh, without any prospect that it will subside anytime soon.
16:36
…
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https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-17-2026
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/7eIER
https://archive.ph/fkYCo#selection-20501.0-21073.1
“Live updates: Top US counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigns over Iran war”
T. 17 March 2026, AP
The director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, has announced his resignation, saying he “cannot in good conscience” back the Trump administration’s war in Iran. Kent said on social media that Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
Israel’s defense minister said Tuesday that the Israeli military killed top Iranian security official Ali Larijani in an overnight strike. The Israeli military also announced it killed Gholam Reza Soleimani, the head of the Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij force.
Gulf Arab nations came under renewed missile and drone fire Tuesday from Iran, which has been targeting regional oil infrastructure and vowed not to relinquish its stranglehold on the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Israel also launched new strikes on Iran and Lebanon.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said “numerous countries” have told him “they’re on the way” to help police the Strait of Hormuz. But he also suggested some countries’ reluctance showed a lack of reciprocity in defense agreements with the United States. Europeans have been critical of the U.S. and Israel for failing to provide clarity on their objectives in the war.
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https://theduran.com/iran-war-point-of-no-return-larijani-hormuz-siege-china-blockade/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzlyreqhQ14
“IRAN WAR, point of no return. Larijani, Hormuz Siege, China Blockade”
17 March 2026, Alex Christoforou & Alexander Mercouris
[Why Trump’s Presidency Now Is Destroyed]
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ALSO, FOR BACKGROUND:
https://thegrayzone.com/2026/02/24/ned-congress-starlinks-iran-violence/
“NED leader cut off in Congress after boasting of ‘deploying’ 200 Starlinks to Iran amid violence”
24 February 2026, Max Blumenthal & Wyatt Reed
The National Endowment for Democracy’s president, Damon Wilson, bragged to a House committee of his group’s aggressive efforts to spark unrest in Iran, including by smuggling Starlink terminals and fashioning anti-Iran narratives for the media. …
According to the New York Times, the Elon Musk-produced internet systems had been smuggled into the country by a “ragtag network of activists, developers and engineers [who] pierced Iran’s digital barricades.” It is clear now that the NED was at least partly responsible for funding and coordinating that network.
With Starlink emerging as a key weapon in the information war waged against Iran, it’s unclear how anti-government actors have managed to smuggle the devices into the country. But a recent incident in which a senior Dutch diplomat was caught trying to sneak multiple Starlink units and satellite phones through security at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Airport gives a hint. …
Despite its mission of promoting transparency and “fundamental freedoms” abroad, the NED is now a dark money group which conceals the names of its local partners under a “duty of care” policy announced in 2025. During his congressional testimony this February, Wilson insisted the policy was necessary for the security of grantees on the ground.
The NED’s work to smuggle Starlink terminals into Iran is therefore a covert operation aimed at promoting unrest. And according to Wilson, it is now a key part of the Endowment’s most aggressive initiative. …
“It’s now one of our largest programs globally, that involves both direct partners – Iranian groups – as well as our core institutes.”
Wilson said his organization was instrumental in bringing about the 2002 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, which saw Iranians initially mobilize against the Islamic Republic’s mandatory hijab law before the protests deteriorated into violent riots.
“If you think about the impact of our work in Iran, the reason the Women, Life, Freedom movement began with a simple headscarf – that story of Mahsa Amini could have been lost as a regional story in Iran. But NED partners helped cover that story, get it out to the world, and get it back into Iran,” Wilson said, referring to the Iranian Kurdish woman who died in police custody from an apparent medical condition after being detained for violating the mandatory hijab law.
Violent regime change riots erupted again this January 8 and 9 across Iran, resulting in the burning of police stations, hundreds of mosques and worship sites, government buildings, marketplaces and lethal mob assaults on unarmed guards as well as police officers. The violence only stopped when Iranian security services imposed an internet blackout and neutralized thousands of Starlink terminals. …
These US-funded groups were involved in “documenting 17,000 deaths,” Wilson claimed, adding that “upwards, potentially of 30,000, remain under review by our partners right now.” As The Grayzone reported, the claim that Iran killed 30,000 people in just two nights originated with an opposition activist closely tied to the self-styled ‘crown prince’ Reza Pahlavi, heir to Iran’s ousted yet still CIA-tied monarchy. …
“Part of what we see manifesting is a response that our partners have helped tell the Iranian people the story, that the regime has squandered their own resources on supporting proxies throughout the Middle East, to the point where they cannot manage their own water supplies for Tehran. And these stories have not just emerged, they are ones that have been covered, documented, and shared with the Iranian people consistently through our work.”
Elsewhere in his testimony, Wilson appeared to take credit for the election of a right-wing government in Bolivia – and that his NED did so to ensure US control over the country’s mineral wealth: “In Bolivia,” he declared, “our partners prevented lithium from falling under Moscow’s control.” …
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Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.
