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Major Military Strategist Explains Why Iran War Is Likely to End in WW3

16 April 2026, posted by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exXSSuQxpc4

“URGENT UPDATE - The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now”

April 13th

Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and one of the world's leading authorities on military strategy and security affairs. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and bombing campaigns and is the author of 'Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism'.

He explains:

◼ The 4-stage escalation trap and why every prediction he made has come true

◼ How Iran and Russia controlling 30% of the world's oil could crash your economy

◼ Why killing Iran's leaders is making the country stronger, not weaker

◼ Why America can bomb Iran's nuclear sites but still can't stop them getting the bomb

◼ The only deal that could stop Iran getting nuclear weapons and why it probably won't happen

00:00 Intro

04:38 20 Years Of War Games Predicted This Conflict

06:24 Bombing Iran’s Nuclear Sites Might Backfire

08:02 How US Pressure Strengthened Iran

12:19 Iran’s Hidden Power Structure Revealed

14:58 The Final Stage Of The Escalation Trap

17:31 Iran As The Fourth Global Power Center

24:14 What Happens Next If No One Backs Down

26:24 Iran Has Been Seriously Underestimated

27:42 Is US Intelligence Reliant On Israel?

32:06 What If This Turns Into A Ground War

40:23 A Civilization Could Die Tonight

44:19 What This War Means For Ordinary Iranians

50:25 Ads

52:33 Is The US Locked Into A Long War?

55:43 Iran’s 10-Point Plan Explained

57:34 The Shifting Global Power Balance

01:01:13 Why US Oil Prices Are Rising

01:05:08 If You Were Trump: What Would You Do?

01:07:20 If Israel Joins The Nuclear Treaty

01:09:57 What Experts Think Happens Next

01:13:49 Ads

01:15:46 What Iran Would Do With Nuclear Weapons

01:17:58 Has Trump Lost Control?

01:21:28 What This Means For Europe

01:28:27 What Can The Average Person Do?

Chapter 1: Introduction

0:00

Iran has figured out that we can't beat them. We're not weakening Iran. We have strengthened Iran and we can't stop

0:09

their drone attacks. And what you're seeing is far more chaotic decision is happening in the White House than it's happening in the government of Iraq. And

0:17

it's evident Trump is losing power. So when I look through the response to the last conversation, the audience had lots of different types of questions. Like

0:25

there's 90 odd million people stuck right in the heart of this that often don't really have a voice. What do you think happens next for them and what is Israel's role in this?

0:32

PAPE: Well, Israel is playing two roles here that have not helped us correctly assess the situation and we'll talk about that.

0:39

And then what do you think happens with Europe?

0:40

NATO is for all practical purposes dead and what happens next?

0:46

So for 21 years, I laid out what a hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran would look like. And when I was here

0:53

last time, every single thing we talked about unfolded in the first several weeks of the war.

0:59

So when you did this 21 years of modeling these attacks, how did America come out of this situation? So there was a consistent set of findings and America

1:08

can bomb them, attack them. We could even threaten to murder all 92 million of them. But the bottom line is

1:16

that is the real danger for us.

1:23

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2:22

Professor Robert P., good to see you again. Great to see you again, Stephen.

2:26

It's been 4 weeks since we sat down and talked about everything that was happening in the war and it's all moved at light speed. You made some predictions then. Many of them have come

2:35

true already. Many of them still unfolding, but I wanted to get you back to talk about what the hell is going on.

2:41

And I think that's kind of how I started last conversation. But there's so much that's being said and I get the sense

2:49

that there's a truth that sits underneath there somewhere because when you look at what the Iranians are saying, when you look at what the Israelis are saying, when you look at what Trump and America are saying, and then you look at reality at some level,

3:00

I feel like we're not being told the truth. My first question to you,

3:03

professor, is who are you and who are you to speak on this subject matter?

3:08

I am a professor at the University of Chicago. I have been there for 26 years,

3:13

almost 27 years and before that I was a professor who taught for the US Air Force. I taught conventional targeting

3:21

and I thought I was going to go into the foreign service. I wanted to understand how we lost the Vietnam War and this

3:28

became the origins of bombing to win which is your book I have here in front of me.

3:32

That's bombing to win 1985. I've just finished all my classes and I have to pick a topic for my PhD. I wanted to

3:39

find the book that laid out all the air campaigns and that explained why Vietnam was a loser. Where did that L come from?

3:47

When you say air campaigns, for someone that knows nothing about military conflict, what do you mean by air campaigns?

3:52

What I mean with an air campaign is when you have military aircraft who were not just doing a single raid bombing one

4:00

target one day, but doing a campaign over days, weeks, months. in the case of Vietnam over years.

4:09

And you wanted to figure out why countries that do these military campaigns, which is pretty much what's going on now in the Middle East, why

4:17

they don't tend to win. Why they don't win when they're so strong? Why is it that when a strong power really gets its

4:27

act together, it's not careless, it's really thinking hard, it then applies this force, a campaign over time and comes out a loser.

Chapter 2: 20 Years Of War Games Predicted This Conflict

4:38

And you modeled for 20 years a war with Iran versus the United States.

4:42

That's exactly right. I imagined uh in class for 90 minutes I laid out what a hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran

4:52

would look like starting with the bombing of its nuclear enrichment sites.

4:57

There's multiple sites. There's uh Ford which is an industrial enrichment where there are centes. There's natons also

5:05

centfuges. There's esphon where you have gasification of the ore so you can make the centuges more efficient. So, it's

5:13

not just one target. There's a whole target set, a complex of targets. And so, what I would do is I would lay out

5:20

here are the aircraft that could be used. Uh, here are the likely results at a tactical level.

5:28

Uh, yes, just for context. So, we're looking at a map of Iran and we're looking at the Persian Gulf. And um Iran

5:35

of course is to the east of the of the Persian Gulf and Thran is up to the north middle. Right in the middle are a

5:43

whole series of these nuclear sites. You have Sagad which is where the uranium ore actually comes from. They don't have

5:51

to bring in ore. They have plenty of ore, but the ore has to be distilled so that you can get the tiny bits of

5:57

uranium 235 you need for uh enriching uranium for either nuclear reactors or

6:04

bombgrade uranium. That's first known at ESON to gasify the ore so that when it

6:11

spins in the centeruge facilities at Natans and Foraux, you can get the

6:19

purity of the uranium 235. That's what we're talking about here when we say it's enriched.

Chapter 3: Bombing Iran's Nuclear Sites Might Backfire

6:24

So when you did this 21 years of modeling these attacks, how did the model show America came out of this situation?

6:33

There was a consistent set of findings you just couldn't ignore, Stephen, which is our bombers would always be able to

6:43

destroy the target, the industrial facility that was enriching the uranium.

6:49

The problem always was, no matter uh which year we did this, you wouldn't be able to destroy the enriched material,

6:58

the actual gold. So, if you're panning for gold, you see what I mean? And you've got the gold, uh, you can destroy the pan, you can even destroy the river,

7:08

you can't get the gold. So, let me repeat that back to you in layman's terms, and you tell me if I'm correct.

7:14

So they they could bomb these sites where they're making the enriched uranium, but it wouldn't destroy the enriched uranium. It would just put it underneath a bunch of rubble.

7:22

That's right.

7:23

So you can bomb it, but you're basically just kicking the can down the road because at some point they can go back and get it. It's undamaged and then they can carry on their process.

7:30

That's right. And and Stephen, they might even anticipate the bombs coming because they might get some indications,

7:37

you know, we're building up and then disperse in advance. And the at the end of last year they did operation midnight hammer where they bombed the sites with

7:46

these incredible exactly as we did in class literally I had just modeled it for the students 3 weeks before and almost exactly the

7:54

platforms I mean on you know the B2s the MOAB I mean every single thing we talked about it unfolded just as we had modeled in glass.

Chapter 4: How US Pressure Strengthened Iran

8:02

So what is going on now? I want you to help me cut through all of this noise and all of this propaganda. What's going

8:09

on now is uh we're not weakening Iran in a sense where Iran will be weaker a year

8:16

from now, 2 years from now. We have strengthened Iran and we're strengthening Iran in multiple ways. So

8:24

far, we've just been talking about bombs on target. My real specialty, Stephen,

8:29

is the interaction of military action and politics. You are not just hitting an industrial target. people in the country, the population, the regime,

8:41

they're reacting to that politically.

8:44

And that reaction is tremendously important. And that's what I discovered in my work studying Vietnam in the

8:51

1980s. The why the bombing campaign was failing, the political reactions by the population

8:58

often are overwhelming the tactical military effects. So you can hit the

9:06

target, you can destroy the industrial facilities. Um, and in fact you can

9:12

energize the population to work even harder to overcome all that damage and

9:20

sometimes they have tremendous geographic advantages. In Vietnam, there was an area called the Ho Chi Min Trail,

9:28

which was a where the logistics where the ammo for the U Vietkong guerilla fighters in the south were getting their

9:36

ammo. And in the 1960s, we knocked out 80 plus% of the throughput of that pipeline, of that trail. You know what?

9:46

It wasn't enough. And we ended up not being able to stop that little itty bitty bit of throughput that still could

9:53

get through and incentivized even more to get it through because they knew we couldn't stop it. And that is what

10:00

fueled the VC and ultimately uh the Vietkong the gorillas that were uh we were really up against in Vietnam. That

10:08

is what ultimately bolstered their morale. They knew we couldn't beat them even though we whittleled them down by

10:17

80%. We couldn't get that last 15 or 20%. And that was what was energizing their morale.

10:25

So, how does that apply to what's going on now? In simple terms, what's going on?

10:29

Iran has figured out that uh we can't beat them. That's what's going on,

10:34

Stephen. They are figuring out that we can't beat them. We can bomb them. We can um attack them. We could even

10:41

threaten to murder all 92 million of them, which is the civilization threat by uh by President Trump. And the bottom

10:48

line is that we can't get to that final 10 20% of um drones and missiles.

10:57

Okay.

10:58

Okay. That Iran has. And it's probably bigger than that that we can't knock out. See, we're able to knock out

11:06

anything that's above ground. that there's a launcher and it's above ground. We can see it. We can see it with satellites. We can see it with

11:13

other sensors as well. That thing is going to be gone in a few days. And that's what the air campaign that you've watched for 40 days is doing. When

11:21

Secretary Hegth or General Kaine talk about hitting 11 12,000 targets, these are targets most of almost all of them

11:30

that are very clearly visible and above ground. This is true of the Navy ships as well. Well, guess what? The Iranians knew that was always going to be

11:38

vulnerable. So what they've been doing is they have been not just deeply uh burying their industrial enrichment

11:45

facilities, they've been deeply burying their arsenals of drones, deeply burying their arsenals of missiles. And so they

11:54

are in a position where even though we are unleashing enormous amounts of air power against them and we are

12:03

technically superior, we can't stop their drone attacks against the ships in

12:10

the Strait of Hormuz. They know it. They can use that to their advantage. And boy are they using it to their advantage

12:18

enormously. Yesterday, the Secretary of War, Pete Hegsth, did a press conference, and one of the reporters

Chapter 5: Iran's Hidden Power Structure Revealed

12:25

said to him, "There's been a ceasefire announced, but it appears that Iran is still attacking neighboring countries."

12:32

He says response to the reporter was,

12:35

"Iran would be wise to find a way to get their carrier pigeon to the troops out in remote locations to let them know not

12:44

to shoot any longer. It can sometimes take time for ceasefires to take hold,

12:48

which was really alarming to me because it suggests that there is actually not a centralized leadership structure in Iran. And actually, if there's not a centralized leadership structure, how

12:57

does one negotiate a ceasefire if there's lots of different factions doing lots of different things? Now, is that actually I would say it's probably decentralized. I think he's probably right about that.

13:05

I'm trying to figure out who in Iran is negotiating with America and why it doesn't seem to be the case that whoever's negotiating control the fact that people are still firing.

13:13

Oh, I see. I see. Yeah. decentralization means chaotic and they can't actually make decisions. That's just not the

13:21

case. The more you move up the chain of command, the more the leader can give pre-delegated orders. If X happens, do do Y, those can hold for hours and days.

13:34

Uh, and that's true in every organization. That's why leaders can go on vacation uh for a week and come back and they're worried of course when they

13:42

come back. But the bottom line is that the leaders are setting the strategic direction. Who is the leader? Oh, it's definitely the supreme leader, the son

13:51

of the one we just killed. Oh, without a doubt. I think this idea that that he's not there, there's absolutely no evidence of that. Yes, it's

13:59

decentralized in a sense it's hard to find them to target them. But by the way, Stephen, I think the reason that we're trying to talk smack about the

14:07

Supreme Leader, is he is he alive? Is he dead? is we're trying to goat him into revealing his location so we can kill

14:14

him. But that's not working. So, and it's also not stopping Iran from putting out 10 points to Pakistan uh in the

14:23

negotiations. It's not stopping Iran from having messages that go through Pakistan to the White House. President

14:31

Trump is then agreeing to the 10 points that are coming from Iran, you see. And then um later on, of course, President Trump is taking it back. But the bottom

14:40

line is um what you're seeing in terms of chaotic decisionm far more chaotic decision-m is happening in the White

14:47

House in the United States that's happening in the government of Iraq.

14:50

They're rising power in the region as our power is is declining precipitously.

Chapter 6: The Final Stage Of The Escalation Trap

14:58

What do you think happens next? We are at a fork in the road. When I was here last time, uh, I was walking you through

15:05

the three stages of the escalation trap and you kept pushing me, tell me more,

15:11

tell me more. This I I was a little bit reluctant to do that. Well, there is a stage four.

15:17

For anyone that didn't hear that episode, could you give us a one sentence on stage one is?

15:21

Yes. Stage one is America bombs. Does leadership change bombing? We hit targets, kill leaders, but the regime

15:29

actually evolves. it is stronger than before. Uh stage two is that then stronger regime lashes back with

15:37

horizontal escalation and takes the straight of form moves at least initially takes the straight of form moves. And then stage three is that's

15:46

the ground option to start to take the straight of Hormuz back. And that's exactly what you saw play out in the first several weeks of the war. Stage

15:55

three was about the Marines. The Marines hadn't even moved yet. And I'm telling you, the Marines are likely going to move. There's going to be move into

16:03

ground options in stage three uh here very rapidly in this war. At that point in time, when we had our first discussion, you wanted to push for the

16:11

future. I said, "No, we we need to wait." And the reason, Stephen, is because what you're not seeing with me is throwing random darts at the future.

16:19

I'm doing risk assessment out about as far as you uh you can have stable predictions. And in war that usually

16:28

means 2 3 4 weeks. It doesn't mean we can say where we'll be a year from now. Here though, now that we're in 40 days,

16:36

we're at a different point. We've clearly passed stage one. We're past stage two where they uh control the straight of our we've bied up to stage

16:45

three, the ground operations. Now we're at a branch, a fork in the road. There's no way to go back to February 27th,

16:55

which is the pre-war period that many people would love to go back to. I too would like to go back to February 27th.

17:02

That's not the future. What happens at this point on in the modeling and the is

17:08

a branch either we go through with the ground war or Iran becomes an emerging

17:17

not right away fourth center of world power. That is the branch that we face now.

17:26

This branch is becoming more evident hour by hour. Explain that to me. So

17:33

everybody now knows that Iran is uh controlling the straight of form moves and controlling shipping. That's selective blockade. I'm taking it a step

17:42

further. That's not just about insurance rates of shipping. that's generating

17:48

political power for Iran to get other states to cowtow to it to accept its objectives.

17:58

What are those objectives? So let's talk about how this affects say Asia. So I'm going to get into global and then we'll

18:05

come back to the Gulf itself. So the shipping that goes through the straight of Formos 80 to 90% of it is going right

18:13

to Asia. The power that comes with that is with say India. India is not siding

18:19

with the United States. India is at best neutral and maybe even a little bit more uh uh edging toward Iran. Well, before

18:28

this, you could imagine that the United States and India would be much more cooperative here. That's not what's occurring. And why is that? It's because

18:37

that oil that's going into Asia for India. This isn't just about the price of oil. This is about the supply of oil.

18:47

When you lose literally all the supply,

18:51

that is a greater cost than simply having to pay more for it. So, India is in a much more difficult situation than Europe and the United States right now.

19:02

Now, look at Japan. Notice in the Oval Office, President Trump brought in uh the leader of the head of state of Japan

19:09

and basically browbeat her and she still wouldn't budge. She still would not cowtow to Trump here uh and actually

19:17

provide military support. What did she do? She's distancing herself from the United States. That's exactly what Iran wants out of America's Asian allies.

19:29

This is geopolitical power and it's rooted in the control of hormones. It's rooted in the selective

19:37

military blockade. That selective military blockade produces vulnerability

19:44

to India, vulnerability to Japan and that is what the we call it the leverage

19:51

but the leverage is is not enough of a I think a full description. This is reorienting America's allies in Asia.

20:00

Now, let's talk about what's happening in the Persian Gulf itself. Before the war, February 27, there was essentially

20:07

a balance in the Persian Gulf, where you had Iran on one side and you had this

20:14

growing collection of Gulf states that were part of an emerging web. They're cooperating with Israel more and more on different um on different issues.

20:24

President Trump is bringing in his AI billionaires to sort of grease this cooperation so that there's some

20:32

material benefits. Well, that was effectively a counterbalancing coalition to Iran. Now, what's happened

20:39

after 40 days is this is breaking down fast. America has military bases in Qatar, has military bases in uh Bahrain,

20:50

has military bases in Kuwait. I'm just picking a few. a military base of course in in Saudi Arabia. These military

20:57

bases, they are producing little leverage here against Iran. In fact, our

21:04

aircraft carriers are not anywhere near the Persian Gulf. They're a thousand miles away. These bases are big fat

21:13

targets. They are above ground. Iran's precision drones can hit things above ground, and they're doing it on those

21:21

bases. That was their immediate retaliation. What is what's happening number one is the anchor the military anchor of this coalition started to

21:30

disappear within hours of the bombing on February 28th. What do you mean by the military anchor? In order to have this coalition work,

21:38

which is like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait,

21:44

somebody has to be the l the guaranter of protection. It's like the mob boss

21:50

who protects everybody else. That is the United States. And that is what our

21:56

military bases were supposed to do. They become the military anchor that allows

22:04

them for there to become political counterbalancing against Iran. That was the Kushner idea in the first Trump

22:12

administration. and it seemed to work and it seemed to uh bring some of these states together who wouldn't necessarily

22:20

think you would cooperate with with Israel. Well, this is now this war has torpedoing this whole idea. President

22:29

Trump is not even willing to do much to actually defend our own bases, much less Saudi Arabia, much less UAE. What he's

22:36

telling them is you go out there and start defending yourself. Well, that's not a guaranter of security. The next thing that's happening is the three

22:44

these states which were operating more in concert are starting to break down and operate in three pools. You have

22:52

Iraq which is now complaining more and more about milit US military presence there. They're distancing themselves

23:00

from American military presence. And remember we installed that government in 2003. So they're not siding with us.

23:07

They're distancing themselves uh from us. Then you have Qatar and you have uh Oman. Uh what Iran's doing is saying,

23:15

you know, we should share some of these uh these tolls with Oman. They're moving

23:22

Oman into their camp. So you have Iraq moving closer to Iran. Oman moving closer. Qatar is trying to keep its head

23:31

down as much as possible. They're not they're not trying to get their nose in this anymore. And who is what's the third pool? The third pool is Saudi

23:39

Arabia, uh the UAE. These are the states that are most under threat. And what has Saudi Arabia done just in the last week?

23:48

They've gone to cooperate more with Pakistan. They have a security deal with Pakistan. What does that mean? They're

23:56

looking to Pakistan as much or maybe even more than the United States as their guaranter of security. So all of

24:04

this coalition, it's not all siding with Iran right now. It's fragmenting and

24:11

that's weakening America. So what happens next?

24:15

You know, as President Trump wants to do, call the war off. That's not going to put us back to February 27th. Iran has 20% of the world's oil. It's going

24:24

to be able to have 75 billion hundred billion of of revenues here over the next year. And also those deeply buried

24:33

caves and tunnels where they have their drones, uh, that can be used to fashion nuclear weapons. Within a year, Iran could have nuclear weapons and we can't

24:41

stop it. So if we pull back, you can start to see that Iran's power is going to grow internally. Uh, but then even

24:50

more than that, its relationships with Russia, its relationships with China will start to move closer together against America.

25:01

And you see this happening from the moment almost the first several days of the war. Russia almost immediately

25:08

offered Iran military targeting information to target US ships. That's why our our carriers are so far away.

25:16

It's because Russia has the ability to see those carriers, tell Iran where they are, and if those carriers get too close, man, they're going to be smashed.

25:25

But it could get worse than that,

25:26

Stephen. Because as this power grows over time, as these incentives for uh

25:33

China, Russia and Iran to cooperate against America grow over time, Iran has control now of 20% of the world's oil.

25:42

Russia has 11% of the world's oil. That means there can be either formal or

25:50

tacic cooperation to take 30% of the world's oil off the global market. Let

25:57

25 minutes, 57 seconds

China soak up a whole lot of that and that can truly produce mega economic consequences for America, for Europe.

26:10

And why are they not going to do that?

26:13

Because they're nice guys. Is that really what we're counting on now?

26:16

Russia Putin is not going to want to wreck America's economy because he has a a a bond with Donald Trump. What do you

26:25

think the fundamental flawed assumption was at the start of all of this from the United States? That Iran was was was weak on its last

26:33

legs and all we had to do was uh push it over the edge of a cliff and it was just a matter of just one more push and then the people would rise up and

26:41

yeah we have painted a picture of Iran um as beaten down as the reason it's not

26:49

retaliating very much is they have no capability to retaliate and I tell tell you this. Um, Stephen, so I' I've

26:56

been in big debates here at uh the Council on Foreign Relations in New York where I've literally been the only person on the stage to stand up and warn

27:05

that this picture of Iran is is is way too negative. There was a a widpread, I think, false assumption across the

27:13

foreign policy community. no one willing to really stand up and challenge it very strongly that Iran was basically

27:22

collapsing on its own. This was always in my view underestimating the power of

27:29

Iran. And you say, well, where does my view come from? It came from the modeling of the bombing. What would

27:36

happen as this went forward? And none of these elements of Iran's power were ever knocked out.

…

——

MY COMMENTS:

The rest of this 97-minute video has him saying that Trump ought to offer Iran an “enforced military containment of Israel.” But he also makes a case, based on Trump’s domestic political priorities (to keep Republicans in charge), that Trump will send ground troops in, and then when the corpses in body-bags come home, that he will unleash America’s nukes to fulfill on his threat to destroy all Iranians and all of Iranian civilization in order for him not to become humiliated by defeat in the entire affair.

I believe that perhaps the likeliest way to prevent that nuking would be for Russia, maybe with China, to announce publicly that any nuclear attack against Iran would be retaliated against by Russia (and maybe also by China). In other words: with America now being under the control of Trump, a clear public commitment by Russia (maybe with China) to retaliate nuclearly against any nation that would nuke Iran would be the likeliest way to get Trump (and Israel) to ‘negotiate’ with Iran to settle this matter without destroying the entire world. Only Putin (and maybe Xi) can do this — and they should. They should do it now, before there is any American ground invasion.

——

—————

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s latest book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.