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In the Horn of Africa, where fragile political alliances and military tensions are the norm, conflict between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia has found a new battleground: social media. Platforms like TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), and Facebook are now key players in a digital war where misinformation is stoking nationalist fervor and increasing the risk of real-world violence.

Two major geopolitical flashpoints fuel this online conflict: Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River and its recent diplomatic engagement with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region seeking international recognition. For Egypt, which relies on the Nile for its water, the dam is seen as a direct threat to its survival. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s outreach to Somaliland has sparked outrage in Somalia, which views the move as a challenge to its territorial integrity.

Though these conflicts stem from deep-rooted historical and geographic disputes, they have now reached millions through social media.

TikTok's influence

TikTok, in particular, has emerged as a stage where complex geopolitical tensions are reduced, dramatized, and frequently distorted. In a widely-shared trend, an Ethiopian user posted a video where a woman symbolically pours water from a jar marked with Ethiopia’s flag into smaller jars labeled Egypt and Sudan, representing Ethiopia’s control over the Nile. Accompanied by patriotic music, the video is a bold display of national pride, amplifying Ethiopian narratives across social media.

Egyptian TikTok users have responded in kind. In one video, two men pour water from a bowl marked with Ethiopia’s flag into glasses representing Egypt and Sudan, only to return the water to the bowl. The video ends with the placement of an explosive device on the bowl, hinting at Egypt’s frustration and alluding to the possibility of sabotage. While these videos are symbolic, the underlying tensions they reflect are very real.

With an ongoing information war between Egypt and Ethiopia as the backdrop, Ethiopia’s growing relationship with Somaliland has further complicated the region’s fragile dynamics. In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, hinting at possible recognition of its independence — a move Somalia vehemently opposed. Sensing an opportunity, Egypt reinforced its ties with Somalia through a military cooperation agreement, escalating tensions in the region.

Reports have since emerged that Egypt has supplied military equipment and personnel to Somalia.

As news of the Egypt-Somalia alliance spread, TikTok and other social media platforms were flooded with celebratory videos, many of which relied on AI-generated content and manipulated footage.

Among the most provocative was an anonymous TikTok user, operating under the handle “user74220974543408,” who gained attention for a series of incendiary posts. In one, a map of Ethiopia is shown underfoot with the Egyptian flag circulating around it, accompanied by ominous music designed to evoke a sense of threat.

An Egyptian Tiktok creator, @100._._6, frequently posts videos praising Egypt’s military power and celebrating its alliance with Somalia. Her content has gained significant traction in Somalia, becoming a rallying point for those who see the partnership as vital in countering Ethiopia’s regional influence. These videos have attracted hundreds of comments in Arabic, Amharic, Oromo, and English, highlighting the cross-border impact of this escalating digital conflict.

The comments sections are rife with nationalist rhetoric and flags. Ethiopian supporters boast, “Ethiopia is ready” and “We are kings in Africa,” while those bearing the Somaliland flag offer their support, referring to Ethiopians as “brothers” ready to “fight back.” Somali accounts, on the other hand, express readiness to align with Egypt and join forces against Ethiopia.

Some accounts take it a step further, advocating violence against specific communities in Somalia. In particular, accounts like @anti_qabiil2023 have targeted the Oromo community, stoking tensions by encouraging violence against them, especially given the Oromo heritage of Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Even TikTok's “live match” feature — where users compete for digital gifts from followers — has been co-opted into the fray. Some users stage live “battles,” with one person representing Ethiopia and the other Egypt, urging their followers to send digital gifts as a show of support. These five-minute contests, though framed as playful, mirror deep-rooted nationalist tensions. The side with the most virtual gifts wins, turning what appears to be lighthearted interaction into a reflection of the region’s real-world political divisions.

AI and disinformation tactics

Disinformation tactics have not been confined to viral videos and memes. Egyptian and Somali actors have repurposed speeches from former global leaders to fuel regional tensions. A widely circulated video features former U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2020 comment that Egypt might “blow up” the GERD, used by Egyptian and Somali figures to stoke fears of imminent conflict.

Meanwhile, pro-Ethiopian and Somaliland actors have weaponized Trump’s past criticisms of Somali-American Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, using his comments about Somalia being a “lawless” state to undermine Somalia’s government.

The information war has also relied on exploiting internal divisions within Ethiopia. Actors aligned with the Egyptian and Somali governments have targeted opposition groups in the Ethiopian diaspora, particularly Amhara nationalist groups, to deepen political rifts. These groups have circulated conspiracies suggesting that the Amhara community could align with Egypt and Somalia if those nations intervened against Abiy Ahmed’s government. This narrative, casting the Ethiopian government as a national security threat, has been eagerly picked up by Egyptian and Somali figures seeking to capitalize on Ethiopia’s internal discord.

Pro-Ethiopian government users on TikTok have not remained silent in this digital conflict. They have responded with content drawing on Ethiopia’s long history of resistance to foreign powers, including past conflicts with Egypt, framing the GERD as a symbol of national sovereignty. These narratives emphasize Ethiopia’s broader struggle for self-determination, casting the dam project as a point of national pride.