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TheEastAfrican.co.ke: Intra-Africa trade and self-reliance vital for recovery in post-Covid era

Posted by: Berhane Habtemariam

Date: Thursday, 17 December 2020

Africa.

Africa’s policy, trade and investment optimism needs to be measured. PHOTO | FILE | NMG

By MICHAEL IKPOKI
 
 
By CHARLES MOYELA
 
Thursday December 17 2020
 

Will Africa’s political parties and personalities promote peace and economic recovery in 2021, or will they predispose the continent’s fragile economies to increased dependency on debt capital from the West, and China.

While China, the second largest global economy, may have added coronavirus to its export list in 2020, its infrastructure lending to sub-Sahara Africa is likely to be moderated in 2021-2022, amid rising debt sustainability concerns. Eighteen or more African governments are currently renegotiating their Chinese loans. The United States of America, the world’s leading economy by GDP, will begin 2021 under a new management. Will the Biden-Harris administration usher in a new era of Africa-US relations? Possibly. Optimism for an improved policy disposition towards Africa exists on both sides of the Atlantic.

Africa’s policy, trade and investment optimism however needs to be measured. The continent needs to be less emotional, more introspective and more strategic about its expectations from a Biden-Harris presidency.

This year’s Thanksgiving, transition and inauguration season in the USA coincides with campaigning, parliamentary and presidential elections across Africa: following Cote d’Ivoire’s October elections, Egypt and Burkina Faso held polls in November 2020; Ghana, Liberia, Central African Republic and Niger will hold polls in December; Ugandans will vote in January 2021 while Somalia and Chad are expected to hold parliamentary elections much later in 2021. The peaceful outcomes of these contests will do more for Africa’s trade, economic and investment landscape than any offshore loan.

One of the paradoxes of this year must be the fact that 2020 was the year many African governments did a better job of managing the public health crisis than their social, economic and political struggles. The tacky handling of Nigeria’s #EndSars protests against police brutality, the fading financial health of South Africa’s state-owned enterprises and ethno-political clashes in Cameroon, Cote D’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania and Uganda are some of the ripple effects of the caustic politics and opaque governance across the sub-Sahara. Ethiopia, once the poster child for Africa’s investment case, is now in conflict with itself.

Africa is likely to recover slowly from these political skirmishes which have occurred without even the cautionary, diplomatic notes or press statements from Washington. Biden and Harris already have an overflowing in-box awaiting them and can afford to be indifferent to Africa’s issues, at least for a little while. After Donald Trump’s chaotic, celebrity-style Make-America-Great-Again leadership – which effectively alienated the USA internationally, the world may get some ‘humble leadership’ from a Biden-Harris team.

But America has rarely been known for modest behaviour. The historic duo will be expected to rebuild confidence in America’s economic policies and political institutions, commence aggressive measures to contain Covid-19, begin to restore American jobs and livelihoods affected by the public health crisis, accelerate the trek to racial harmony and social equity, and restore America’s hegemonic and ‘soft power’ position by effectively mitigating the trade, geopolitical and military antics of intransigent global actors like China, North Korea and Russia.

While President-elect Biden is unlikely to continue President Trump’s unconcealed disregard for Africa (Trump infamously referred to El Salvador, Haiti and Africa as “shithole countries” in 2018), signals from the Biden camp reveal a more expansive foreign policy net. These include breathing life into the trans-Atlantic alliance with Europe, rebuilding the military alliance with NATO, fostering multilateralism (which Trump abandoned), promoting human rights, and being tough on dictators and undemocratic regimes, amongst other priorities.

Where is Africa in this foreign policy mix?

Our premise is that in 2021, Africa can only justifiably be a third- or fourth-level foreign policy priority for the US and other more economically developed countries (MEDCs). This may not necessarily be a bad idea. As President Trump once quipped, “it is what it is.”

The pragmatic view Africa’s policymakers, technocrats, diplomats and development finance experts need to have is that North America, China, Europe, Japan, and other MEDCs will be preoccupied with Covid-19 recovery efforts – at least in the medium-to-long-term.

With northern and a few southern economies embarking on lockdown 2.0 in the midst of the good news about plausible vaccines and treatments for the virus, the WHO and African Union will need to ensure that Africa is not excluded from the global vaccine distribution plan (if such a plan actually exists).

The IMF’s economic outlook for 2020-2021 is sombre: while the global economy is expected to contract by -3 percent in 2020, economic activity in 2021 is likely to remain subdued until health risks abate. On the bright side, the pandemic has fast-tracked digitalisation of services and catalysed a new breed of entrepreneurs across a range of industries.

*Michael Ikpoki, a former CEO of MTN Ghana and MTN Nigeria, is CEO of Africa Context Advisory Partners, an advisory firm. Charles Olumuyiwa Moyela is a strategic communication expert and chair of the Board of Junior Achievement Africa, a global non-profit organisation.


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